Citi predicts mixed results for USD ahead of Investing.com jobs report

Citi provided commentary on the potential impact of the upcoming jobs report on the USD. The report, due for release on Friday, has markets anticipating different outcomes for currency pairs involving the USD, such as and , based on different scenarios of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.

Citi analysts suggest that if the NFP data meets or beats consensus expectations, it could lead to a rally in USDJPY and USDCHF. In addition, foreign currencies with higher betas could also see marginal upside against the USD due to reduced recession risk.

Conversely, if the NFP data slightly misses expectations, the USDJPY and USDCHF could fall, but a dovish reassessment by the Federal Reserve may provide support for risk assets, allowing higher beta currencies to outperform USD.

In the event of a considerably weaker NFP as forecast by Citi Economics at 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, both USDJPY and USDCHF could fall significantly. This scenario could also put pressure on higher beta coins if increased risk aversion triggers a “bad news is bad news” market reaction.

Citi’s analysis also highlights two important considerations for the upcoming jobs report. First, a stronger-than-expected report could have a negative impact, particularly if the narrative of a European Central Bank pivot gains traction and the market trends to sell the EUR.

Second, the range of possible data outcomes could leave Fed and USD prices in a state of uncertainty. The recent balanced rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the proximity of another jobs report ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in November may limit market moves unless there is an extreme deviation in the data.

This article was generated with support from AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information, see T&C.