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The US dollar rose for a third straight day as markets grappled with risks on several fronts

  • The greenback found a firm bid level after weeks of being pegged to the boards.
  • With Fed interest rate cuts dependent on labor force data, expectations for more cuts hang in the balance.
  • Geopolitical risks remain a key sticking point for global markets on Wednesday.

The US dollar (USD) index (DXY) rose for a third straight day as the market’s risk appetite is subdued. Geopolitical concerns weighed on investor sentiment this week as conflicts in the Middle East eased and better-than-expected US jobs data dampened hopes for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

US ADP labor change numbers printed much higher than markets expected on Wednesday, making it difficult for investors to continue to hold out hope for huge rate cuts after several Fed officials sent news this week warning that the 50bps rate cut in September was likely a one-off and not. a signal of future politics.

Daily digest market moves

  • The US dollar index (DXY) is off 101.50 as the greenback’s rally extends in jittery markets.
  • Escalation in the Middle East threatens to escalate following Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Tuesday.
  • Investors are waiting to see how Israel will retaliate against Iran, which was retaliating after Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon last week.
  • US ADP labor change numbers came in at 143,000 for September, beating the 120,000 forecast and beating the revised 103,000 level from the previous month.
  • Employment growth limits market hopes for further Fed rate cuts.
  • Investors are still looking forward to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs print.

DXY Price Forecast

Despite a short-term rally, the US dollar index remains generally quite warm, with the major currency index still weakened below previous highs near 102.00. Greenback traders have faced a tough run since the US dollar peaked near 106.50 in early 2024. The DXY has recovered more than 1.5% from last week’s swing to 100, 00, but USD flows remain down 4.5% overall from the 2024 auction peak. of 106.52.

DXY Daily Chart

Frequently asked questions about US dollars

The US dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America and the “de facto” currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local banknotes. It is the world’s most heavily traded currency, accounting for more than 88% of total global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, as of 2022. After World War II world, the USD has taken over from the British pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US dollar was backed by gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971, when the gold standard disappeared.

The most important factor influencing the value of the US dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to ensure price stability (inflation control) and to promote full employment. Its main tool for achieving these two objectives is the adjustment of interest rates. When prices rise too fast and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the value of the USD. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed can lower interest rates, which affects interest rates.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and engage in quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (for fear of default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the desired result. It was the Fed’s preferred weapon to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. This involves the Fed printing more dollars and using them to buy US government bonds, mainly from financial institutions . QE usually leads to a weaker US dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal of maturing bonds it holds in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US dollar.

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