Our “leaders” don’t talk about AGI, but we must

Hello, reader.

Neither JD Vance nor Tim Walz mentioned it at last night’s vice presidential debate…nor did Kamala Harris or Donald Trump talk about it during the 9/10 presidential debate.

As far as I can remember, none of the moderators on either debate asked a question about it.

Meanwhile, it’s all anyone seems to be talking about here in the real world…

This is, of course, artificial intelligence.

On Monday, just one day before the debate, this headline from Foreign policy the magazine appeared in my feed…

The Presidency of Artificial General Intelligence is coming

In this op-ed, Ylli Bajraktari, president and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project, argued that the next presidential term could be the most impactful in our lifetime because of the imminent arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Bajraktari writes…

It is increasingly likely that the next US presidential term will see the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI)… It will revolutionize the economy, accelerate scientific discovery, propel the quality of life to unimagined heights, and ensure the near invulnerability of national security.

Sounds pretty good!

However, he continues…

If, however, AGI is inaugurated in Beijing, then the situation could be very different, and its effects are likely to be malignant. Chinese possession of AGI would give its troops advantages on every battlefield, its businesses advantages in every market, and its security services the ability to impose a level of surveillance and repression far beyond any attempt yet by an authoritarian state.

Seems to me like something the debate moderators should have asked our aspiring leaders about. Regardless, it’s too late now; the debate season is over.

Luckily for us, though, we’ve talked about AGI, its possibilities, and its dangers here at Smart money for months. We stay informed about what happens to us.

As I said, AGI is when AI becomes capable of “generalized” cognitive abilities, allowing it to achieve superhuman cognition.

It is beyond anything most of us have ever dreamed of. AGI is not a faster horse and buggy situation, or even a jump from horse and buggy to automobiles. It’s like going straight from a horse and buggy to time travel.

Even the very stuffed shirts at Foreign policy now they seem to understand that these changes are coming rapid.

So today, let’s take a look at some recent evidence for the arrival of AGI.

Besides, we all know someone who will talks all things AI and AGI: Elon Musk. In fact, the general director of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is scheduled to make a major AI-related announcement next Thursday, October 10.

So, today I’ll also let you know what exactly Musk is revealing…and a related investment opportunity that could take off.

Let’s take a look…

The AGI evidence is accumulating

Just last month, ChatGPT developer OpenAI introduced o1, the first in its new series of AI models that are “designed to spend more time thinking before responding.”

If the rumors are true, the o1 is OpenAI’s anticipated “Strawberry” model. This Large Language Model (LLM) is so powerful that it appears to have created such… mixed feelings…that led to the November 2023 fight between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and his board. (Altman came out on top.)

If the assumptions are true, Strawberry will not only exceed the capabilities of current AI models. He will be able to plan ahead, navigate complex tasks autonomously, and most importantly, solve problems he has never encountered before. In other words, it is a significant step towards AGI.

OpenAI’s O1 seems to deliver on that promise. We can see this in performance testing. For example, GPT-4o, an OpenAI model unveiled in May, correctly solved 13 percent of the problems on the International Mathematical Olympiad qualifying exam. However, o1 corrected 83% of the problems.

Unlike previous AI models, o1’s reasoning capabilities come from a stimulation technique known as “chain of thought.” As OpenAI says, o1 “learns to recognize and correct its mistakes. Learn to break down difficult steps into simpler steps. Learn to try a different approach when the current one doesn’t work.”

It has long been OpenAI’s primary goal to create AGI. The company’s mission statement even states that one of its goals is to “ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.”

To track its progress towards this goal, OpenAI has devised a five-level AI classification system…

• Level 1: Chatbots – AI systems that understand natural language and handle conversational tasks. This is the current state of AI. Consider, of course, ChatGPT.
• Level 2: Reasoners – AI systems that exhibit human-level problem-solving skills.
• Level 3: Agents – AI systems that can operate autonomously on behalf of a user for several days.
• Level 4: Innovators – AI systems that independently generate innovations for specific fields such as science and medicine.
• Level 5: Organizations – AI systems that perform the collective work of an entire organization.

OpenAI executives have told employees that o1 is approaching level 2. So the company is truly one step—or level—closer to AGI development.

William Saunders, a former technical staff member at OpenAI, believes it is plausible that an AGI system could be built in just three years. While testifying before Congress about the threat of AI reaching human-level intelligence, Saunders said that “AI companies are making rapid progress in building AGI,” specifically referring to o1’s debut.

The time frame for Elon Musk is even shorter. He predicts that AGI will be upon us in the next two years.

Of course, there are still those who have doubts about the development of AGI. Speaking at Cypher 2024, India’s largest artificial intelligence conference, Kailash Nadh, chief technology officer at Zerodha, insists that it is unrealistic to claim that AGI can be achieved within two to five years.

The reality is that we don’t know exactly when AGI will arrive. What we do I know, however, that we must prepare for it.

Meanwhile, other areas of AI continue to make progress… like autonomous vehicles (AVs).

The robotaxi is coming

In fact, Musk says Teslawill unveil its autonomous robotaxi, the “Cybercab,” next Thursday, October 10.

This robotaxi is set to completely transform transportation and create an incredible amount of wealth for early stage investors. However, like any game-changing innovation, there will be companies – and people – who will be left behind.

“To put it plainly, we are cooked” Register reports that a person posted on an Uber driver forum in San Francisco. “I’m done for. In the age of artificial intelligence and automation, we are the first to be affected in a major way.”

My fellow InvestorPlace Luke Lango has spent weeks researching Musk’s robotaxi ahead of next week’s “We Robot” event. And Luke tells me he’s found a little-known driverless car vendor that he thinks could play a key role in the AV revolution…and benefit investors along the way.

He hosts a special strategy session on Monday, October 7, 10 a.m. Eastern to reveal everything he knows about Tesla’s Cybercab…and show you how to get all the details on this little vendor.

For more details on this show – and to save your seat – click here.

And stay tuned for tomorrow Smart money. In it, Tom Yeung will share the company he believes will be the real winner of the autonomous vehicle revolution.

Hint: It is not Tesla.

Sincerely,

Eric Fry