Modeler KCC puts privately insured losses at $6.4 billion from Helene

Karen Clark & ​​​​Co., the renowned storm modeling and analysis firm, estimates that privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene will be about $6.4 billion – from winds, storm surge and inland flooding in nine states .

The figure includes residential, commercial and industrial property and automobile losses, but does not include boats or National Flood Insurance Program damage, the company said in a statement Wednesday.

“Unlike a typical Category 4 hurricane, most damage occurred far from landfall, with more wind damage in Georgia than Florida, more surge damage in Tampa, and the most significant damage of inland flooding in North Carolina,” the firm said. noted.

The estimate is slightly higher than AM Best’s estimate of about $5 billion, released just after Helene lashed the region, and Gallagher Re’s upper $6 billion range for privately insured losses.

It’s also three times more damage than Karen Clark & ​​Co. estimated. (KCC), after Hurricane Idalia followed a similar path a year ago. Helene, which made landfall on Sept. 26, had sustained winds of 140 mph, compared to Idalia’s 125 mph winds.

Helene also dumped a record 8 inches of rain on parts of western North Carolina, leading to catastrophic flooding in Asheville and other areas. In Asheville, the previous record for the water level of the French Broad River was 23.1 feet, set during the Great Flood of 1916, KCC noted. That record was surpassed by about 1.5 feet on September 27 due to rains from Helene. In fact, more than a foot or rain fell in portions of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia.

In storm-weary Florida, Helene tracked slightly east of Tallahassee, keeping some of its strongest winds away from a densely populated area.

“… The strongest winds were felt mainly in the sparsely populated area between Lake City and Tallahassee. Losses would have been higher with a direct hit on Tallahassee, but the strongest winds stayed well east of the city, resulting in small losses in the area,” said Karen Clark & ​​Co. in the report.

Property damage from coastal flooding was concentrated around Tampa Bay, particularly in Clearwater and St. Petersburg, even though maximum storm surge heights were observed at locations north of Cedar Key.

Helene’s storm surge broke records along parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast — some of which were set just a year ago when Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane. Helene is now the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Big Bend. Cedar Key received 10.3 feet of storm surge from Helene, shattering the previous record of 6.9 feet set during Idalia.

Private claims for flood insurance from Helene in Florida topped 2,300 on Wednesday, Oct. 2 — five times the number seen in Hurricane Idalia.

Photo: Cindy White looks at the devastation from inside her home in Morganton, North Carolina. The adjacent Catawba River was flooded due to torrential rains. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

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