A trio of crises threatens to affect the race 5 weeks before Election Day

• A trio of emergencies occurred just five weeks before the 2024 presidential election.
• Violence in the Middle East, a pig strike and Hurricane Helene could impact the polls, experts told BI.
• Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be forced to reckon with crises in the final days of their campaigns.

The violence in the Middle East, a massive strike by dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast, and the devastation of Hurricane Helene occurred just five weeks before the 2024 presidential election.

Hurricane Helene and other storms dumped more than 40 trillion gallons of rain on much of the southeastern United States — including two key states — late last month. The death toll has topped 180 this week and hundreds of people are still missing as rescue efforts continue.

Just days later, more than 45,000 dock workers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports went on strike, triggering a major work stoppage that is already affecting the US economy and disrupting the supply chain.

These two US disasters unfolded as the conflict in the Middle East intensified this week. Iran fired at least 180 rockets into Israel on Tuesday, saying the attack was in retaliation for a series of critical strikes Israel launched against Hezbollah in Lebanon in recent weeks and the killing of a Hamas leader in Tehran in July. The Iranian strikes came hours after Israel said it had launched a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon, pushing the region ever closer to all-out war.

Political scientists warn that the convergence of these three crises could have an impact on voter decisions.

When events like natural disasters and geopolitical crises occur, voters typically either blame or reward the party responsible, depending on how that chaos shakes out, Peter Loge, a former Obama adviser and director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington. The university told Business Insider.

The incumbent party — the Democrats, in this case — is routinely blamed for negative external events leading up to the election, which would put Vice President Kamala Harris at greater risk than former President Donald Trump, both Loge and David Jones, an exit pollster and professor of political science at Baruch College at the City University of New York, said.

These choices, however, are not typical. Trump was shot in the ear during an assassination attempt in mid-July. Shortly thereafter, President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race following a disastrous June debate. Then, last month, federal prosecutors charged another man with a separate assassination attempt against Trump.

Furthermore, Americans are not choosing between a traditional incumbent and a challenger; Their options include a former president and a current vice president, complicating how these current crises could affect the two campaigns, Randall Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska Omaha, told BI.

“I think it’s going to be very difficult for voters to get a clear message and take the contrasting views from the two candidates on these issues,” Adkins said.

But that doesn’t mean the American electorate isn’t paying attention. In the final sprint to Election Day, voters tend to view global forces through a political lens, Loge said, and uncontrollable situations quickly become topics of political discussion.

“About four weeks out from the presidential election, it’s very difficult to separate global events from politics, which is unfortunate because these are global events that affect real people’s lives,” Loge said.

Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz gave both candidates a platform to address the crises.

Before the debate, Loge said he anticipated Vance would work hard to connect Harris to current events, while Walz would focus on her calm competence. His prediction came true within minutes.

The first question of the night centered on the violence between Iran and Israel. In his response, Vance said Iran had received unfrozen assets from “the Kamala Harris administration,” trying to cast her as more responsible for America’s actions than Biden. Under Trump, he said there is “peace through strength.”

Trump’s colleague has also gone after Harris’ record on immigration and inflation, repeatedly saying she has failed to enact economic change during her tenure.

Walz, for his part, has worked to paint Trump as the candidate of chaos and Harris as a stable choice.

“What we’ve seen from Vice President Harris is we’ve seen consistent leadership,” he said of the Middle East. “We saw a peace that is able to build on coalitions, to unite them, understanding that our allies matter.”

“The Bedroom Problem”

The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran raises foreign policy concerns, and the devastation of Hurricane Helene left large swaths of the American Southeast devastated. But it’s an ongoing economic crisis from a hog strike that can really disrupt the presidential race, Jones said, polling.

“The bedroom issue that could end up making the biggest difference is the hog strike, and that’s because the No. 1 issue Americans say when they talk to pollsters is the economy,” he told BI.

The strike will inevitably lead to complications with the nation’s supply chain, which in turn could eventually lead to inflation — an outcome that would hurt Harris badly, he said.

Logistics experts told BI that a strike lasting a week or two would create delays but minimal economic costs. Anything longer, however, would lead to upward price pressures and shortages, especially at the grocery store.

And the affected ports are already feeling the impact: more container ships are anchored than usual, and analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the stoppages could cost $5 billion a day.

“There’s a lot of evidence that when people are unhappy with the economy, they blame the incumbent presidential party,” Jones told BI.

Republicans typically hold the upper hand on economic issues among voters, but there is growing evidence that Harris’ policies on the issue are beginning to sway Americans.

And while dock workers’ strike could spell trouble for Harris, it’s also the only crisis of the three that has any real chance of ending before Election Day, Adkins said.

The war in the Middle East is likely to get worse before it gets better, and cleaning up the hurricane could take years. But liquidators and ports could reach an agreement before voters head to the polls, Adkins said.

Jones said the end of the strike could give Harris an opportunity to celebrate; she said she could imagine a photo of her shaking hands with smiling dockworkers.

Most voters have already made up their minds

Regardless of how the current crises play out in the coming weeks, the presidential election will ultimately be decided by a small number of voters in a small number of states.

The country’s intense partisanship also means that external events don’t sway voters as much as they used to, Jones said.

“I think at the presidential level right now, probably 19 out of 20 people have already made up their minds,” Adkins said.

In 2020, Biden won the election by less than 45,000 votes in three key states, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Given how close presidential races have been in the past, if even a few thousand voters in key districts find themselves energized by the war in the Middle East, upset by the impact of the hog strike or hurt by Helene, the crises could move the needle in November. .

What matters most now is how the candidates’ messages reach specific communities affected by these crises, Loge said. While those in the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia may be most focused on hurricane cleanup, he said voters in must-win Michigan may be more concerned with ongoing violence overseas.

According to Loge, the Biden-Harris administration would be wise to project calm powers in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, he said he expects the Trump campaign to continue its message, promoting Trump as the candidate of strength and Harris as the candidate of weakness.

Which message voters respond to most will become clear on Election Day.