Russia Strike on Black Sea Ship Was Caused by Error and Old Ammunition: Britain

• A missile hit the MV Aya, which was carrying grain from Ukraine to Egypt, on September 11.
• The strike led to fears of a potential escalation of Russian attacks on the Black Sea grain corridor.
• But according to the UK MOD, it was probably an error caused by poor procedures and outdated ammunition.

A strike last month on a merchant ship in the Black Sea was almost certainly the result of a botched attack by a Russian bomber using outdated munitions, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

On September 11, the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged vessel MV Aya was loaded with grain bound for Egypt from the Ukrainian port of Odesa when it was hit by what was believed to be a Russian missile.

No casualties were reported at the time.

The ship was damaged, but managed to reach the coast of Romania under its own steam, where it received help, according to Ambrey, a marine insurer.

The strike led to fears of a potential escalation of Russian attacks on the Black Sea grain corridor. But according to UK intelligence, it probably wasn’t intended for Aya at all, but happened “due to poor targeting procedures by Russian pilots using an outdated munition.”

According to his assessment, the strike was almost certainly an AS-4 anti-ship missile fired by a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber.

The bomber may have misidentified Aya, fired “hastily” and then hurriedly left the scene “for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile.”

“It is a realistic possibility that failure to detonate would avoid catastrophic damage,” added the UK’s MOD.

Ukraine was also said to have shot down a Russian Tu-22, also known as BACKFIRE, in April this year, which would explain why Russian pilots were “more cautious with their strike operations in the Black Sea”.

Using long-range missile strikes and naval drones, Ukraine managed to push much of Russia’s Black Sea fleet from its base at Sevastopol in occupied Crimea into the safer Russian waters of Novorossiysk.

Since its exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian naval export capabilities have largely been limited to port strikes and – widely believed – to laying naval mines.

The 9/11 incident was the first direct hit by a commercial vessel on the grain corridor since November 2023.

A “direct attack” like this would mark “a significant escalation,” Ambrey said, adding: “Until Russian officials provide an explanation, the threat to ships calling in Ukraine remains high.”

Ukraine’s economy is heavily dependent on maritime exports. Before 2022, it accounted for 10 percent of the global grain market, with 90 percent of that heading to the world via the Black Sea, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Despite the potential for economic war, Russia has good reason to avoid escalating the threat to Black Sea shipping, Ambrey wrote.

Any escalation would have a knock-on effect on marine insurance premiums, which “would make trade with Russia and Ukraine significantly more expensive,” it said.

The UK MOD was scathing about the apparent accidental attack on Aya.

“Launching a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect direction against an erroneous probable target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice,” the statement said.