Politics and Economics – Rabobank

There is no doubt that the demand for havens has had an impact on asset prices over the past few sessions. Fears of an escalating Middle East crisis have oil prices on track for their biggest weekly gain since 2023, while the USD is the best performing G10 currency in the 5-day outlook as it recovers some of its recent losses, according to Rabobank . notes FX analyst Jane Foley.

The Fed will announce three more 25bp rate cuts through January 2025

“While the monthly US nonfarm payrolls report is both flawed and subject to significant revisions, it remains the most watched data event of the month. Accordingly, this afternoon’s release will go a long way in determining expectations about the likely size of the Fed’s policy move next month and potentially early next year. In Rabo’s view, the Fed will announce three more 25bp rate cuts between now and January 2025.”

“Not all Fed officials share Powell’s confidence. Bowman recently commented that inflation remains “uncomfortably above the committee’s 2% target,” while Barken reiterated that it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Indeed, this week’s rise in oil prices, if sustained, would bring fresh inflation risk.”

“The print market consensus for today’s NFP number is 150,000, although clearly the revision announced over the past two months will affect how this number is interpreted. There have been a number of other US labor force data releases in recent sessions. Correlation between different series may be lacking, at least until all revisions are introduced. That said, the messages contained in various labor indices can provide clues about the overall health of the labor market.”