Israel may not be able to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites on its own

• Israel weighs its response to Iran’s missile attack.
• One option would be to eliminate Iran’s nuclear sites — something Biden opposes.
• However, experts say this type of attack would be difficult without US support.

As Israel weighs how to attack Iran, speculation is mounting that it could target the country’s nuclear facilities.

But an attack of this magnitude involves serious complexities — and, experts say, it may require direct US support.

“Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear program without US assistance, but it is unclear whether it can on its own carry out the kind of sustained and penetrating conventional attack that would seriously disable the program.” Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told Business Insider.

President Joe Biden has expressed opposition to such a strike.

“The answer is no,” he said when a reporter asked Wednesday if he supported the move.

“Big mistake”

It comes amid growing fears that Israel and Iran, longtime regional foes, are on the precipice of all-out war. It is a war that the US is desperately trying to avoid.

Iran fired around 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Most were intercepted by the Israeli and US militaries, The New York Times reported.

The attacks were in response to Israel’s stepped-up campaign against Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, Iran’s most powerful foreign proxy.

Israel is turning its guns on Hezbollah after spending a year trying to destroy Hamas, another Iranian ally, after it launched devastating terror attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran “made a big mistake” and “will pay for it.” Experts predict an imminent response and told BI that it could range from targeted assassinations to the destruction of Iranian energy facilities.

Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Friday, fueled by speculation that the escalating conflict could limit output. Brent crude futures were up 1.8 percent earlier on Friday and U.S. futures were up 0.6 percent at $74.20, according to Reuters.

A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could, however, create far more serious consequences, including a race for Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

Israel could face major challenges

Israel would also have to overcome various obstacles if it were to coordinate a massive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities—the first being distance.

As The Financial Times noted, there are more than a thousand miles between Israel and Iran’s main nuclear bases.

It would also require significant resources — about 100 aircraft, according to a 2012 report by the US Congressional Research Service. This equates to nearly a third of Israel’s 340 fighter jets, expanding its capabilities.

And Iran’s nuclear sites present a formidable target, spread over various sites, some of the most sensitive being located in heavily fortified underground bunkers.

Targeting the key underground facilities at Fordow and Natanz would require the use of massive US GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators, experts at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists wrote in October.

An attack would also require neutralizing air defense systems and other sites Iran could use to retaliate.

“Only Israel can inflict serious damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but probably cannot destroy the deeper ones without US assistance,” Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told BI.

A more limited strike is a likely option

Another option is a more limited attack.

Robert Dover, professor of international security at Hull University, told BI that such an attack could take the form of a strike on logistics lines used to supply Iran’s nuclear program.

“The Israelis are more likely to attack the logistics lines to the Iranian nuclear program, which can be done on the same hour-by-hour time frame that their military activities are currently governed by,” Dover said.

Sabet echoed that assessment, saying military bases, secondary nuclear facilities and economic targets are more likely at this stage.

For its part, Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful and that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons.

However, it has faced various sanctions from the EU, the US and the UN for violating treaties on nuclear progress, and its economy has suffered as a result.

Filipo Dionigi, an international relations expert at the University of Bristol in Britain, told BI that despite Biden’s words on Wednesday, the US could still decide to support Israel if it decides to go ahead with a strike.

In a recent report, Savill highlighted the growing threat of regional escalation.

“The current situation serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance between deterrent power and the destabilizing impact that even a near-threshold nuclear capability can deliver,” he said.