US inflation data and Fedspeak should keep the US economy in the spotlight

A bumper week for the US dollar saw the currency shake off recent weakness and hit fresh two-month highs amid a resurgence of risk-reduction sentiment in response to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, while Chairman Powell’s tilt towards higher rate small cuts and firm US labor market data also contributed to the strong advance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced every day this week, breaking above the 102.00 barrier with some conviction to print multi-week tops. The NFIB Business Optimism Index will be out on October 8, along with trade balance results and the RCMTIPP Economic Optimism Index. Weekly mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, the EIA report on US crude oil supplies and the FOMC minutes will be released on October 9. On October 10, the inflation rate will take center stage, followed by the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Michigan Producer Prices and Advanced Consumer Sentiment will close the weekly calendar on October 11.

EUR/USD lost its luster and retreated to seven-week lows near 1.0950 amid a pronounced rise in the US dollar. German factory orders are due on October 7, followed by retail sales in the wider EMU. German industrial production figures will be released on October 8, while trade balance results are expected on October 9. German retail sales and ECB accounts are due on October 10, followed by final German inflation and current account results on October 11. .

GBP/USD posted weekly losses for the first time after three consecutive advances, although it managed to bounce back to Friday’s three-week lows in the sub-1.3100 region. The Halifax house price index is due on October 7, backed by the BBA mortgage rate. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is out on 8 October, while the RICS Balance of House Prices is due on 10 October. Finally, the NIESR GDP, goods trade balance, industrial production, manufacturing output, construction output and monthly GDP monitor figures will all be released on October 11.

Quite a positive week for USD/JPY as it recovered the 149.00 level to hit new two-month highs. The preliminary Coincident Index and the Leading Economic Index are due on October 7. Household spending, current account results and average cash earnings are expected on October 8, while machine tool orders are due on October 9. Weekly foreign bond investment figures are as follows. tap on October 10, along with bank loans, producer prices and the Eco Watchers survey. The Reuters Tankan Index will close the calendar on October 11.

The greenback’s strong gains sparked a reversal in AUD/USD, which snapped a three-week streak of gains despite making fresh 2024 highs north of the 0.6900 barrier earlier this week. The Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge is due on October 7. NAB Business Confidence and RBA Minutes will be released on 8 October. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Indicator is due on October 9. Finally, consumer inflation expectations and building permits The approval of private homes is due on October 10.

Anticipating the economic outlook: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Bowman and Kashkari will speak on October 7, along with the ECB’s Cipollone and Lane.
• The Fed’s Bostic, Musalem, Kugler and Collins speak on October 8, supported by the ECB’s Schnabel and McCaul and the RBA’s Hauser.
• The Fed’s Jefferson, Logan, Barkin, Goolsbee, Collins and Williams are due to speak on October 9, along with the ECB’s Elderson and the RBA’s Kent.
• The RBA’s Hunter will speak on October 10, followed by the Fed’s Daly and Cook and the ECB’s Nagel.
• The Fed’s Goolsbee, Logan and Bowman speak on Oct. 11.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policy

• The RBI and RBNZ will meet on October 9.
• The BoK will decide on rates on October 11.