The Israel-Iran war of attrition will be the new reality for a long time

After Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones in April, Israel responded with airstrikes on defense systems at an Iranian airbase. Iran’s attack on Tuesday is expected to draw, at the very least, a response on a similar scale.

Israel’s leadership is under tremendous domestic political pressure to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities, which are seen as an existential threat, Carmiel Arbit, senior fellow for Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

But the US is pushing Israel to take smaller steps, such as targeting Iran’s oil industry, she added. Cyber ​​attacks, similar to the Stuxnet virus that hit Iran’s nuclear facilities two decades ago, could also be possible.

However, Arbit also said Israel is keen to restore deterrence, meaning a military threat that would make Iran think twice about attacking again.

The longer-term outlook is for regional conflict to continue to simmer as global powers seek to contain the situation rather than defuse it entirely.

“I think we’re going to look at this as the new reality for a long time,” Arbit predicted. “I think the question is just going to be how often is it going to happen and is it just going to be bottle for dad, or is this going to escalate further. And I think the hope of the international community right now is to avoid a third world war, rather than this smaller-scale war of attrition.”

Michael O’Hanlon, the Philip H. Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, would not rule out an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but also believes the more likely target will be oil infrastructure.

But with Iran’s missile attacks largely thwarted, Tehran’s next retaliation against Israel may not be against the country itself, he told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

For example, closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point in global oil trade, is possible and would affect the entire world economy and the US in the process.

Certainly, the US could clear any underwater mines in the strait that prevent oil tankers from passing within weeks. But that would not be the end.

“And even after that point, you may still have a state of ongoing hostilities with some chance of tankers still being hit, even once we’ve reopened things,” O’Hanlon said.

Iran could consider this option even if it is against its interests, preventing its own oil exports from reaching international markets, he added. That will depend on how hard Israel hits Iran.

“If Israel really shuts down Iran’s oil economy, then Iran has no reason to tolerate the rest of the world using the Strait of Hormuz,” O’Hanlon warned.

On the other hand, a more limited strike could keep Iran in pursuit of a ceasefire, he said. President Joe Biden’s efforts to defuse tensions could be short-lived because the history of US-Israel relations shows that Washington’s influence is limited, O’Hanlon added.

Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, wrote in a weekly note on Friday that the past month has demonstrated Israel’s military dominance in the region.

“Israel – and especially Prime Minister Netanyahu – is in a stronger geopolitical position today than it has been in months and will be interested in seizing the moment to reduce Iranian threats,” he said.