Moody’s estimates US private market insured losses for Hurricane Helene at $8-14 billion

Moody’s RMS Event Response on Monday released an estimate showing that total U.S. private market insured losses from Hurricane Helene could be between $8 billion and $14 billion.

Moody’s puts the best estimate at $11 billion. The estimate represents the insured losses associated with wind, storm surge and rainfall-induced flooding following the event.

Moody’s RMS Event Response also estimates that losses to the National Flood Insurance Program from the event could exceed $2 billion.

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The figures are not far off the estimates of CoreLogic, which last week revised upward its estimate of insured losses. The total insured loss from Hurricane Helene is now estimated at between $10.5 billion and $17.5 billion, according to the modeling firm. That was up significantly from the modeler’s previous estimate of $3 billion to $6 billion in insured losses as the storm was about to hit.

Karen Clark & ​​Co., a storm modeling and analysis firm, earlier this week estimated that privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene would be about $6.4 billion from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in nine states.

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AccuWeather, which raised its estimate of total damage and economic losses from Hurricane Helene in the US last week, now says losses could be between $225 billion and $250 billion. This was the third forecast increase from the weather service. Less than a week ago, AccuWeather raised its estimate of total damage and economic losses from Hurricane Helene to between $145 billion and $160 billion.

Hurricane Helene made landfall as a major Category 4 hurricane west-southwest of Perry, Taylor County, Florida on September 27 with maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour, bringing hurricane-force winds, damaging storm surge and heavy rainfall. Louisiana coast.

Moody’s loss estimate reflects wind losses in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, as well as storm losses in Florida. The estimate also includes the impact of inland flooding in affected regions, particularly North Carolina.

Estimated losses reflect property damage and business disruption in residential, commercial, industrial and automotive lines of business and take into account sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA) and unmodeled losses from extended power outages and infrastructure damage to roads, transmission . , and distribution lines, according to Moody’s.

Moody’s estimates expect private market losses to be driven by wind. However, the storm in Florida and flooding in North Carolina will also contribute significantly to total private market insured losses, according to the modeler.

NFIP losses are expected to be largely caused by storm surge in Florida, as the absorption rate in flood-ravaged regions of North Carolina is minimal. Insured wind and NFIP losses will be caused by residential lines, while storm and inland flood losses in the private market will be caused by commercial, industrial and automotive lines, according to Moody’s.