North Africa is poised to fuel Europe’s green energy future

Europe’s transition to a greener energy sector is gaining speed, with North Africa set to be a key driver of this process. New capacity additions from solar and wind, weaker energy demand and a partial return of hydropower and nuclear power have made Europe’s energy mix increasingly greener in recent years. Rystad Energy estimates that 73% of the continent’s electricity will come from clean sources by 2035, North African imports can deliver up to 24 gigawatts (GW) via subsea interconnections, providing Europe with a reliable flow of clean energy.

Europe’s transition to a greener energy sector is gaining speed, with North Africa set to be a key driver of this process. New capacity additions from solar and wind, weaker energy demand and a partial return of hydropower and nuclear power have made Europe’s energy mix increasingly greener in recent years. Rystad Energy estimates that 73% of the continent’s electricity will come from clean sources by 2035, North African imports can deliver up to 24 gigawatts (GW) via subsea interconnections, providing Europe with a reliable flow of clean energy.

Currently, Morocco is the only African country connected to Europe by two high-voltage cables to Spain, each with a capacity of 700 megawatts (MW). A third cable of the same capacity is planned and will be further supported by major projects such as the Xlinks UK-Morocco project, which will establish 11.5 GW of intermittent renewable capacity, 22.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage and a 3.6 GW subsea interconnection between the UK and Morocco. Several interconnections are also in the works, such as the GREGY initiative between Greece and Egypt alongside the ELMED-TUNITA project between Tunisia and Italy, which has attracted significant investment from governments and financial institutions.

With these three initiatives online, approximately 7.2 GW of interconnection capacity and 23 GW of renewable capacity will need to be deployed in North Africa to support Europe. This includes 13.5 GW of solar PV and 9.5 GW of onshore wind, requiring an investment of over $27.5 billion to develop these renewable energy projects. Assuming that all the energy generated at these renewable facilities is dispatched to Europe, the three interconnections operating at full capacity could supply around 55 terawatt-hours (TWh) on an annual basis – which is 1.6% of production Europe’s total energy supply today and could replace it. about 6% of European fossil energy production.

North Africa’s renewable energy potential aligns well with Europe’s goal of reducing dependence on Russian natural gas. The region’s geographical proximity makes it a natural fit for buyer-seller relationships, leading to large-scale solar and wind projects, along with submarine cables in the Mediterranean and even in the UK. Wind power in Europe peaks in winter, while solar power peaks in summer, providing a chance to balance power supply fluctuations. This helps diversify energy sources and reduce fossil fuel consumption in Europe’s energy sector,

Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil, Principal Research Analyst, Renewable Energy and Energy, Rystad Energy

Learn more with Rystad Energy’s Renewable energy and energy solution.

North Africa is an emerging player in the energy transition in the Mediterranean – with annual energy production exceeding 400 TWh and the region having the highest electricity access rates in Africa. The region plays a key role in the advancement of onshore solar and PV installations, with more than 350 GW of projects currently in various stages of development, most of which are in the concept phase. With over 8 GW of installed capacity from both solar and onshore wind, North Africa makes a compelling case for renewable energy, especially as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of these technologies has fallen significantly, from $55-$70 per megawatt-hour. (MWh) below $50 per MWh over the past decade.

In addition, the region is home to some of the largest photovoltaic installations globally, including the Benban Solar Complex in Egypt, which is the largest solar project in Africa. Located in Aswan Governorate, this complex comprises 41 separate solar photovoltaic installations spread over an area of ​​37 square kilometers and is so large that it can be seen from space. Until last year, Morocco was home to the world’s largest solar thermal plant, the 510 MW Noor Ouarzazate thermal solar complex. Noor I and II use Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology and 12-meter high mobile parabolic mirrors, while Noor III uses a solar tower. This project was developed under the build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) model by ACWA Power Ouarzazate, a consortium that includes ACWA Power of Saudi Arabia, the Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (Masen), Aries of Spain and TSK. In addition, the largest wind energy projects in Africa are located in Egypt, notably the 580 MW Gabal El Zeit and 545 MW Zaafarana wind farms.

Solar panels in sunny North Africa can triple their output compared to those in Europe, benefiting from ample space for such projects. Positioned in Earth’s sunbelt, the region’s daily PV output ranges from 4.8 to 5.6 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per kilowatt-peak (kWp), compared to 3.6 to 4.8 kWh per kWp in Europe . North Africa also boasts significant wind potential, with wind speeds averaging between 7 and 10 meters per second. This difference in energy potential is reflected in the capacity factors for both solar PV and onshore wind, with North African countries showing more stable trends than their southern European counterparts.

The timely completion of renewable energy projects in North Africa is primarily hampered by supply chain constraints. With limited local generation capacity, the region must rely heavily on imports to meet its growing demands for solar and wind power. This dependence not only exposes North Africa to supply chain risks and price volatility, but also highlights a significant vulnerability in its energy strategy. Similar constraints are expected in the manufacture and procurement of high voltage direct current (HVDC) cables.

However, the availability of HVDC and very high voltage (EHV) submarine cables will present significant challenges in the coming years. As of 2023, Europe produces more than 50% of these cables, with around 9,000 kilometers in circulation globally. New manufacturing plants are expected to raise this supply to around 16,000 kilometers by 2030. However, Rystad Energy’s projections indicate that demand will exceed 75,000 kilometers by 2030, driven by the need for HVDC interconnectors and power cables. offshore wind export. This could create an imbalance between demand and supply that requires the intervention of Asian manufacturers, which will cause European firms to urgently increase their production capacity to meet the demand.

In addition to these supply chain challenges, funding hurdles could further delay project timelines, especially as many initiatives remain in the early stages of development. Collaboration between multiple suppliers and contractors is crucial to complete cable fabrication and installation within the typical two to three year timeframe. Concurrent development of solar PV and onshore wind projects will also help minimize delays and address issues related to cable integrity and storage costs.

Of Rystad Energy

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