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WTI gains ground above $76.50 on fears of Middle East oil production disruptions

  • WTI price extends higher near $76.85 in early Asian session on Tuesday.
  • Fears of wider conflict in the Middle East boost WTI prices.
  • Investors are awaiting further stimulus measures from Chinese officials.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.85 on Thursday. WTI price extends rally as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised speculation that Israel could attack Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Oil prices rose on fears that Israel could target Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack. Iran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel’s third-largest city, Haifa, on Monday morning. On the first anniversary of the Gaza war, Israel planned to step up ground incursions into southern Lebanon, sparking fears of a wider war in the region, according to Reuters.

“There is growing concern that (the conflict) could continue to escalate — not only jeopardizing Iran’s 3.4 mmbopd (million barrels of oil per day) production — but also creating further disruptions in regional supplies,” noted analysts at Tudor, Pickering. Holt & Co.

Sluggish Chinese demand and dismal global economic data have dampened the outlook for oil markets this year. However, investors will be closely watching further policy measures from China’s main economic planning body on Tuesday after mainland Chinese markets return from a week-long holiday. The lack of new measures or a smaller-than-expected package could also disappoint the market and weigh on WTI prices.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries in meetings twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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