Why APT could increase by 14%?

• Aptos price returns to the key support area, following a rally ahead.
• On-chain data paints a bullish picture as APT’s long-short ratio is above one and open interest is rising.
• A daily candle close below $7.23 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

Aptos (APT) price is extending its gains on Tuesday after last week’s retest of the key support area. On-chain data further supports APT’s bullish outlook as its open interest is rising and long-short trades are above one, all pointing to a rally in the coming days.

Aptos bulls are poised for a rally following a bounce from the support zone

Aptos price broke the bearish pattern (formed by connecting multiple highs and lows with two trend lines) on September 21; a break above this pattern generally favors the bulls.

APT retested the October 1 breakout level, which coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $7.74 and the support zone between $7.35 and $7.76. This area is a key support level and has risen by 20%. As of Tuesday, it continues to trade above around $9.02.

If the support area of ​​$7.35 and $7.76 holds, APT could rise 14% from the current trading level to retest the daily resistance level of $10.26.

If the bulls are aggressive, the global crypto market outlook is positive, and APT closes above $10.26, it could extend an additional 19% rally to retest the April 12 high of $12.21.

APT/USDT Daily Chart

Aptos’ on-chain data further supports the bullish thesis. Coinglass data shows that Aptos futures open interest (OI) on exchanges is also rising. OI indicates the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled (settled by delivery) and whether the cash flows in the contract are increasing or decreasing.

OI growth represents new or additional money entering the market and new purchases, suggesting an optimistic trend. Conversely, when OI falls, it is usually a sign that the market is liquidating, more investors are leaving and prices may fall.

The chart below shows that APT’s OI increased from $119.23 million on October 2nd to $191.84 million on Saturday, the highest level since mid-April. This increase indicates that new or additional money is entering the market and new purchases are taking place.

APT Open Interest chart. Source: Coinglass

Coinglass’ long-short ratio of 1.04 is at a one-month high, further supporting Aptos’ bullish outlook. This over-one ratio reflects bullish sentiment in the market as more traders are betting on asset price growth.

APT long-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass

However, if APT’s daily candle closes below $7.23, the bullish thesis will be invalidated. This scenario would send Aptos price down 12% and retest the next daily support at $6.32.