Russia set to lose 1,000 troops per day over winter on 3 fronts: UK MOD

• Ukraine is set for another harsh winter as Russia is expected to keep up the pressure.
• It will come at a cost to Moscow: more than 1,000 soldiers wounded or dead a day, Britain’s MOD said on Monday.
• British officials said Russia had probably suffered more than 648,000 casualties since the start of the war.

Britain’s Ministry of Defense expects Russia to lose 1,000 or more troops a day next winter, saying Moscow is likely to continue trying to overwhelm Ukraine in the coming months despite difficult conditions.

“Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to exceed an average of 1,000 per day for the rest of 2024, despite the onset of winter,” the ministry said in an update on Monday, referring to soldiers who are wounded or killed in combat.

“So far, winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction in offensive operations or attrition rates due to Russia’s reliance on dismounted tactics and lack of maneuver warfare, which requires better conditions,” it added.

The ministry has signaled for months that Russia is suffering a much higher casualty rate compared to previous years as it relies on mass to power its way to victory in Ukraine.

The New York Times reported in June that Western intelligence agencies estimated that daily Russian losses averaged 1,000 soldiers wounded or killed in May.

Ukraine also reported that May was one of Russia’s heaviest months, saying the Kremlin suffered more than 1,200 casualties a day.

In a separate note on its update on Monday, the UK Ministry of Defense cited that data and said Ukrainian forces now estimate Russian losses in September were even higher, at 1,271 killed or wounded per day.

“Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has probably suffered more than 648,000 casualties,” the ministry wrote.

Officials posted a chart of Russia’s average daily monthly losses since the start of the war, showing a progressive year-over-year increase.

They wrote that the sharp increase in casualties is likely due to the opening of new fronts by Russia and Ukraine in Kharkiv and Kursk, along with the intensification of fighting on the eastern front, where Russia has made a strong push to take the key towns of Pokrovsk and Vuhledar from Donetsk .

“Russian forces, most likely, continue to try to stretch Ukrainian forces using mass to overwhelm defensive positions and make tactical gains,” the ministry added.

Russian troops took Vuhledar in early October after two years of fighting. Some of the bloodiest clashes of the war took place in the Ukrainian stronghold, including a failed assault by elite Russian marines that were nearly destroyed and an ill-fated tank column run that ended with Moscow losing more than 130 vehicles armored.

But Russian troops managed to capture nearby towns and encircle Vuhledar in June, in a sign of increased pressure against Ukrainian forces this year as Russian leader Vladimir Putin focuses his country’s economy on war.

The Kremlin has aggressively recruited new troops to make up for its losses and in some areas has paid top dollar in sign-up bonuses that rival the U.S. military.

Draft documents reported by Russian media in September indicate that authorities plan to spend up to 40 percent of the nation’s total budget on military and national security.

It is not clear how long Russia can sustain this effort. However, some economists say such war spending is the only thing keeping the country from a recession as it becomes increasingly isolated from the world economy and suffers a brain drain.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside business hours by Business Insider.