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Sentiment soured as markets await mid-level data releases

Here’s what you need to know on Tuesday, October 8:

Markets took a cautious tone early Tuesday as investors await the next batch of macroeconomic data. The US economic file will include the NFIB Business Optimism Index for September and RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index data for October. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will also release merchandise trade balance figures for August. Later in the US session, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to give speeches.

USD PRICE Last 7 days

The table below shows the percentage change of the US dollar (USD) against the main listed currencies over the last 7 days. The US dollar was strongest against the New Zealand dollar.

USD EURO GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 1.37% 2.34% 2.91% 0.85% 2.80% 3.79% 0.92%
EURO -1.37% 0.95% 1.49% -0.51% 1.41% 2.37% -0.46%
GBP -2.34% -0.95% 0.56% -1.45% 0.44% 1.42% -1.38%
JPY -2.91% -1.49% -0.56% -1.97% -0.08% 0.88% -1.90%
CAD -0.85% 0.51% 1.45% 1.97% 1.93% 2.91% 0.07%
AUD -2.80% -1.41% -0.44% 0.08% -1.93% 0.96% -1.84%
NZD -3.79% -2.37% -1.42% -0.88% -2.91% -0.96% -2.75%
CHF -0.92% 0.46% 1.38% 1.90% -0.07% 1.84% 2.75%

The heatmap shows the percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is chosen from the left column, while the quoted currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the US dollar in the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change shown in the box will be USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said on Tuesday that downward pressure on China’s economy is increasing. “China’s economy faces more complex internal, external environments,” the NDRC noted. After Wall Street’s main indexes closed the first day of the week in negative territory on Monday, U.S. stock index futures traded marginally lower early Tuesday, reflecting the sour mood. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) The index continues to move sideways near 102.50 after failing to make a directional move in either direction on Monday.

Data from Germany showed industrial production rose 2.9% month-on-month in August. This reading followed July’s 2.4% contraction and came in better than market expectations of 0.8%. EUR/USD struggling to benefit from bullish data and trading marginally higher on the day below 1.1000.

In the minutes of its September policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said policymakers had discussed options for cutting interest rates and added: “Scenarios for cutting, holding and raising interest rates are all conceivable, given given the considerable uncertainty about the economic situation. perspective.” Speaking at the Walkley Foundation, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that they will act on policy when inflation stops being high and sticky. After posting heavy losses on Monday, AUD/USD continued to push lower in the Asian session on Tuesday. At press time, the pair was trading at its lowest level since mid-September, below 0.6730.

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday that a drop in real wages for the first time in three months was not good news. Akazawa also said the Japanese government will create an environment where real wages continue to rise. USD/JPY showed no reaction to these remarks and was last seen fluctuating in a narrow channel around 148.00.

GBP/USD it fell amid risk aversion in the second half of the day on Monday and ended the day below 1.3100. The pair are looking to make a comeback early on Tuesday.

Gold posted modest losses for the fourth consecutive day on Monday. XAU/USD remains on the back foot and is trading below $2,640 in European morning Tuesday.

Frequently asked questions about sense of risk

In the world of financial jargon, the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to bear during the reference period. In a “risky” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “de-risking” market, investors begin to “play it safe” because they are worried about the future and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain to yield a return, even if it is relatively modest .

Typically during “risk on” periods, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except gold – will also gain in value as they benefit from a positive growth outlook. Currencies of nations that are large commodity exporters are strengthening due to increased demand and Cryptocurrencies are rising. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds rise – especially major government bonds – gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar all benefit.

The Australian dollar (AUD), Canadian dollar (CAD), New Zealand dollar (NZD) and minor currencies such as the ruble (RUB) and South African rand (ZAR) all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on” .This is because the economies of these currencies depend heavily on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risky periods.This is because investors anticipate higher demand for commodities in the future the cause of intensified economic activity.

The main currencies that tend to rise during “risk-off” periods are the US dollar (USD), the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The US dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the world’s largest economy is unlikely to default. The yen, due to increased demand for Japanese government bonds, as a large proportion are held by domestic investors, who are unlikely to withdraw them – even in a crisis. The Swiss franc, as strict Swiss banking laws provide investors with increased capital protection.

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