Will Nvidia be worth more than Apple by 2025?

Apple (AAPL -2.25%) is the largest company in the world with a market capitalization of $3.37 trillion. However, Nvidia (NVDA 2.24%) it’s not far behind in second place with a valuation of $3.13 trillion. To overtake Apple as the world’s largest company, Nvidia’s stock needs to rise about 8%, while Apple’s stock remains unchanged.

Is this feasible? After all, Apple’s revenue over the past 12 months totals $385 billion, while Nvidia’s is a comparatively smaller $96 billion.

Apple has a growth problem, while Nvidia does not

The current state of these two businesses could not be more different.

Apple consumer products are quite popular in the US and abroad. However, it has recently struggled to translate that popularity into some sort of revenue growth, as its most popular device, the iPhone, has failed to grow sales significantly over the past three years.

Data source: Apple. Note: Apple’s Q3 ends around June 30 each year.

The big hope was that this year’s iPhone 16 launch would trigger a wave of upgrades thanks to its ability to run Apple’s interpretation of artificial intelligence (AI), Apple Intelligence. Unfortunately for Apple, many reports suggest that demand for the iPhone 16 has not been strong, hurting a potential business catalyst.

Nvidia doesn’t have the same problem. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are powering the AI ​​revolution by being best-in-class. The biggest AI companies are buying these GPUs by the thousands, which benefits Nvidia massively. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended July 28), Nvidia’s revenue rose 122% year over year. That strength is expected to continue next quarter, with management guiding for revenue of $32.5 billion, or about 80% year-over-year growth.

Nvidia is also expected to see revenue growth at least through next year as many companies are still building out their AI computing infrastructure. To add to Nvidia’s growth potential, it’s launching its Blackwell architecture, unlocking massive speed gains compared to its current Hopper architecture.

Wall Street analysts believe Nvidia’s revenue will grow about 42% next year, far outstripping Apple’s forecast of 8% growth.

That growth won’t be enough to catch Apple in terms of revenue, however. So how could a company that generates much less revenue overtake another as the world’s largest company?

Nvidia’s profits will explode next year

Revenue is not everything when evaluating a company. What matters more are profits and valuation. If the only thing that mattered was revenue, then Walmart would be rated as the world’s largest company, as it generated $665 billion in revenue last year, compared to Apple’s $385 billion.

When profits are factored in, Nvidia is starting to get a little closer to Apple.

AAPL Net Income (TTM) Data by YCharts

While Nvidia is quickly closing the gap, it still generates roughly half of Apple’s profits. But with its growth rate and stronger profit margin (55% vs. Apple’s 26%), Nvidia could quickly catch up to Apple’s profit level.

By the end of each company’s next fiscal year (Apple’s ends around the end of September, while Nvidia’s ends in January), if each business maintains its current profit margin, Apple will generate about $110 billion in profits, while Nvidia would be slightly under at $98 billion.

This is a huge the gap will close in just a year, but if Nvidia’s business grows as analysts believe it can, it will be right up there with Apple.

The evaluation follows. Investors typically give premiums to companies if they grow at a faster rate or have a strong brand. Nvidia has both of these things, which is why its valuation is so high. On the other hand, Apple has a strong brand but slower growth. If Nvidia is expected to maintain its revenue growth through 2026, it will likely command a larger premium than Apple, which will likely propel it past Apple as the world’s largest company.

Nvidia has a lot going for it, and its financial picture will change substantially over the next year. I think this could be enough to overtake Apple as the biggest company in the world because Apple has some growth issues to work out.