Hurricane Milton is bearing down on the Tampa, Florida area with winds that are knocking over houses

Hurricane Milton barreled toward Florida’s west coast with winds strong enough to demolish homes, threatening to trigger once-in-a-century flooding in some of the state’s fastest-growing counties.

Milton’s peak winds dropped slightly to 150 miles per hour, making it a Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. Ocean water in Tampa Bay is expected to rise up to 15 feet, flooding towns and cities.

The storm will also bring torrential rain, with some areas reaching 18 inches, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 8 a.m. New York time. Power outages lasting days or weeks are expected.

“For this area of ​​Florida — Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Bradenton — this is probably the worst storm that even longtime residents of that area have ever seen,” said Dan Pydynowski, meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. .

According to AccuWeather, Milton will likely reach Category 4 late Wednesday or early Thursday, just below that threshold. There’s a chance it could hit just south of Tampa Bay, which could lead to winds pushing water west into St. Petersburg, a phenomenon that happened in 2022 when Hurricane Ian hit further south along the coast.

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Damage and losses could range from $60 billion to $75 billion, a “major catastrophe” for the region, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler for Enki Research.

Milton will make landfall two weeks after Helene hit Florida further north on the West Coast, triggering flooding in the southern US that killed at least 230 people. Like Ian, which killed more than 150 people two years ago, Milton previously reached Category 5 strength and is expected to decline slightly before landfall.

If Milton makes landfall even as a Category 3, the storm could threaten as many as 500,000 residential properties in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas, with a rebuilding cost of $123 billion, according to estimates by property data company CoreLogic. If Milton reaches Category 4, 700,000 homes at a cost of $174 billion could be at risk, CoreLogic said.

These estimates reflect the Tampa region’s high home values ​​as well as its sizeable population.

While Milton’s top-level winds may drop slightly before landfall, it will continue to increase as it makes landfall. This has happened with catastrophic storms, including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Ike in 2008. A storm’s category on the Saffir-Simpson scale is not a true predictor of its destructive power.

Residents began fleeing the coast, including in Tampa, and social media showed scenes of traffic between bumpers on freeways. Officials warned against trying to ride out the storm.

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Meanwhile, so many people took to the skies to evacuate that United Airlines Holdings Inc. from Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Sarasota were fully booked by Thursday, the carrier said in a statement. As of 8:20 a.m. New York time, 4,086 U.S. flights were canceled for Wednesday and Thursday, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking service.

To help residents flee overland, Gov. Ron DeSantis said tolls have been suspended and shoulders will be used as travel lanes to help people leave.

“Given how big this storm is, there’s going to be significant damage in different parts of Florida,” DeSantis said at a news conference Tuesday. In addition to wind damage and flooding, widespread power outages are likely, said DeSantis, who has declared a state of emergency in 51 counties.

In addition to wind fluctuations, Milton is forecast to spread in size, bringing devastation to a wider area.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west central Florida,” said Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

As Milton approaches, the strongest gusts are expected to extend well inland to near Orlando and encompass about two-thirds of the northern citrus belt, according to the Commodity Weather Group.

In addition to Milton, the hurricane center is now tracking an area of ​​low pressure off the east coast of Florida that has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next two days.

Photo: A worker boards a storefront Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall in Ybor City, part of Tampa. Photographer: Tristan Wheelock/Bloomberg

Copyright 2024 Bloomberg.

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Catastrophe Natural disasters Hurricane in Florida