On the bit, the US government gives the green light to Bitfinex to recover the hacked funds

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that the company still expects the price of Bitcoin to rise above $80,000 in Q4.
• Bitcoin’s potential to reach the $80,000 target depends on the upcoming US election and the lack of market surprises.
• Bitfinex could be the sole recipient of 119,754 BTC recovered from the past theft.

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $80,000 by the end of the year if the market sees no surprises and the upcoming election does not affect investor sentiment, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan. Meanwhile, the US government considers Bitfinex the sole victim and potential beneficiary of the 119,754 BTC seized from the hackers.

Bitwise speculates that Bitcoin could hit $80,000 by the end of the year

In a memo to investors on Wednesday, Hougan said the company still maintains its positive outlook on Bitcoin rising to $80,000. However, Hougan noted that three key factors need to be at play for the top cryptocurrency to reach its stated price target:

• Politicians are not manipulating market sentiment as the US election approaches.
• Additional stimulus from China and another 50 basis points of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
• Lack of market surprises.

The upcoming election has seen mixed support from the crypto community in recent weeks. On the one hand, several crypto leaders suggest that a victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump would generate bullish momentum for Bitcoin and the crypto market, while a victory by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could lead to a bearish trend.

Bernstein analysts are major supporters of this notion, speculating that Bitcoin will break the $80,000 price level if Trump wins. Instead, they predict that a Harris win would send Bitcoin down to around $40,000.

However, Hougan said the key thing is not the election, but for politicians to step back from manipulating the market.

“To thrive, (B)itcoin does not need politicians. He just needs them to get out of the way,” Hougan stated in the post.

He also noted that a further 50 bps rate cut by the end of the year and China’s fiscal stimulus could boost Bitcoin’s price.

Ultimately, the market needs to see little to no surprises in Q4 for Bitcoin to sustain the uptrend. Some of the potential surprises Hougan highlighted include hacks, lawsuits, and locked tokens or dormant wallets entering the market.

However, judging by previous quarters and recent events, market surprises may be hard to avoid.

A potential black swan is the latest US government filing that suggests cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex may be the sole victim and recipient of the recovered 119,754 BTC stolen by hackers in 2016.

“The government is not aware of anyone who qualifies as a victim under the CVRA (Crime Victims’ Rights Act) or for restitution under the MVRA (Mandatory Victim Restitution Act), beyond possibly Bitfinex…”, the US Attorney for the District of Columbia said in a filing on Tuesday.

Bitfinex Victims Right Notice

Bitfinex was the victim of a hack in August 2016 that resulted in the loss of 119,754 BTC, worth $71 million at the time. The tokens would be worth about $7.4 billion based on Wednesday’s prices.

Following the breach, Bitfinex distributed the losses among all users, issuing BFX tokens to compensate for their losses, and managed to recover around 80% of the stolen funds over time.

In 2023, two people, Lichtenstein and Morgan, were charged with laundering some of the stolen bitcoins. The file also states that both pleaded guilty to the charges.