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WTI moves higher above $73.00 on Middle East conflict and hurricane risks

  • The price of WTI climbs to almost $73.20 in the first European session on Thursday.
  • Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton risks are supporting WTI prices.
  • Concern about sluggish demand in China could limit oil price gains.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $73.20 on Thursday. WTI price rises on fears of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East amid ongoing tensions and Hurricane Milton in the United States.

A potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could boost WTI prices in the near term. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel’s retaliation to Iran’s missile attack would be “strong, precise and, above all, surprising.”

A severe hurricane that hit Florida has already increased demand for gasoline, with nearly a quarter of gas stations running out of supplies. This, in turn, helps push up black gold prices.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ended Oct. 4 rose by 5.81 million barrels, compared to a gain of 3.889 million barrels the previous week. The market consensus estimated that inventories would rise by just 2 million barrels.

The World Bank has forecast China’s growth rate to slow to 4.3 percent next year, down from a forecast of 4.8 percent in 2024, citing concerns over weak spending by Chinese consumers. Meanwhile, the US EIA on Tuesday downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 due to weakening economic activity in China and North America. Investors have worried that sluggish growth will dampen fuel demand in China, and that could limit WTI’s upside for the time being, as China is the world’s largest crude importer.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries in meetings twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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