Holiday tourism statistics remain positive – UOB Group

China’s National Day Golden Week holiday (Oct 1-7) generates the highest spending on domestic tourism and outings among its major holidays, which also include the Spring Festival (Jan/Feb) and Labor Day (May). Domestic tourism activities remained positive this year, while there were also reports of stronger outbound and inbound travel during the period, notes UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen.

National Day holiday statistics suggest there is no major boost in incentives yet

“Domestic tourism activity remained positive, while there were also reports of stronger outbound and inbound travel during China’s National Day holidays (October 1-7). Compared to the previous year, both domestic tourist trips made (+5.9%) and revenues (+6.3%) increased, but spending per trip was almost stable (+0.4%).

“China’s NDRC announced no new stimulus measures at its briefing on Tuesday (October 8). The key message points to China’s confidence to achieve its official growth target of “around 5%” this year. We maintain our GDP growth forecast for China at 4.9% in 2024, with expected growth of 4.7% in 3Q24 and 4.8% in 4Q24. We expect the pace of expansion to moderate further to 4.6% in 2025.”

“Fiscal stimulus is a key area the market will watch for additional support for consumption and investment, with estimates at around CNY 2t (1.6% of GDP). The PBOC-led stimulus announced ahead of the National Day holidays is estimated to provide a boost of at least 3t CNY (2.3% of GDP) to the economy.”