Airbus risks hitting its annual guidance of 770 deliveries by Investing.com

Investing.com — Airbus (EPA: ) is currently at risk of missing its full-year delivery target of 770 planes, analysts at Bernstein said in a note on Wednesday.

The aerospace company delivered 50 aircraft in September, bringing its total deliveries for the year to 497. To meet its annual target, Airbus should deliver more than 270 aircraft in the fourth quarter, an increase from previous performance.

“We now see risks to hitting full-year guidance of 770 deliveries (already down from 800 in June) and are lowering our forecast to 750,” Bernstein analysts said.

These difficulties are not new for Airbus. In recent months, the company has faced shortages of key components, particularly engines and interiors, which are critical to the final assembly of the aircraft.

Supply of LEAP and GTF engines remains problematic, with manufacturers struggling to keep up with demand.

In September, GE Aerospace warned that its LEAP engine deliveries were improving at a slower pace than expected, exacerbating Airbus’ challenges.

Similarly, the supply of GTF engines was strained by the need to provide spare engines for ground-based aircraft, further delaying Airbus’ production schedule.

Airbus’ supply chain problems extend beyond engines. Delays in deliveries of seats and other interior components also hampered the company’s ability to meet its production targets.

Spirit AeroSystems (NYSE: ), one of Airbus’ main suppliers, has faced major failures in the supply of critical components such as the landing gear and auxiliary power units.

While some progress has been made, these challenges continue to slow the production line, casting doubt on the company’s ability to achieve the necessary acceleration in the fourth quarter.

Despite these difficulties, Airbus has yet to formally revise its full-year guidance and is expected to reaffirm its target during its third-quarter earnings announcement.

Historically, Airbus has been able to execute a large number of deliveries in December, sometimes delivering more than 90 aircraft in the last month of the year.

However, if the situation does not improve by early December, Airbus may be forced to adjust its delivery forecast, similar to what happened in 2022.

Bernstein also signaled concerns for 2025 and beyond, noting that supply chain issues could persist.

Analysts cut their delivery expectations for 2025 from 870 to 820 units and for 2026 from 1,000 to 910 units, suggesting Airbus production growth could be slower than previously anticipated.