Exclusive-Stop Israel from bombing Iran’s oil sites, Gulf states urge US. By Reuters

By Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi and Pesha Magid

DUBAI (Reuters) – Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could be attacked by Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters .

As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, also refuse to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have relayed this to Washington, the three sources. said close to government circles.

Israel promised Iran it would pay for last week’s missile attack, while Tehran said any retaliation would be met with widespread destruction, sparking fears of a wider war in the region that could end up in the US.

The moves by the Gulf states come after a diplomatic push by non-Arab Shiite Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence on Washington amid growing concerns that Israel could target Iran’s oil production facilities .

During meetings this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that it could not guarantee the safety of the Gulf kingdom’s oil facilities if Israel was given any assistance in carrying out an attack, a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat told Reuters.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: “The Iranians have said, ‘If the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war.’

The diplomat said Tehran sent a clear message to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen could respond if there was regional support for Israel against Iran.

A potential Israeli strike was at the center of talks on Wednesday between Saudi de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a tour of the Gulf to drum up support, sources in the Gulf and Iranian.

The Iranian minister’s visit, along with Saudi-American defense ministry communications, are part of a coordinated effort to address the crisis, a Gulf source close to government circles told Reuters.

A person in Washington familiar with the talks confirmed that Gulf officials had reached out to their American counterparts to express concern about the potential scale of retaliation expected by Israel.

The White House declined to comment when asked whether Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure Israel’s response was measured. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday about Israeli retaliation in a call described by both sides as positive.

Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East and now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington said: “The anxiety of the Gulf states is likely to be a key point of discussion with Israeli counterparts in trying to persuade Israel to undertake a carefully calibrated response.”

OIL AT RISK?

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to offset any loss of Iranian supply should an Israeli retaliation take out some of the country’s facilities.

But much of this unused capacity is in the Gulf region, so if oil installations in, for example, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates were also targeted, the world could face an oil supply problem.

Saudi Arabia has fended off an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its Aramco ( TADAWUL: ) oil field shut down more than 5 percent of global oil supplies. Iran has denied involvement.

Riyadh has been rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, but trust remains an issue. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates all host US military facilities or troops.

Concerns about oil installations and the potential for a wider regional conflict were also central to the discussions between Emirati officials and their American counterparts, another Gulf source said.

In 2022, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis fired missiles and drones at oil tankers near an oil refinery owned by the UAE’s state oil firm ADNOC and claimed responsibility for the attack.

“The Gulf states are not letting Israel use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to pass and there is also the hope that they will not hit the oil facilities,” the Gulf source said.

The three Gulf sources pointed out that Israel could direct strikes through Jordan or Iraq, but using airspace from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Qatar was not agreed to and was not strategically necessary.

Analysts also pointed out that Israel has other options, including mid-air refueling capabilities, which would allow its planes to fly down the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean, go to the Gulf and then fly back.

“THE MIDDLE OF MISSILE WARFARE”

According to two senior Israeli officials, Israel is still calibrating its response and as of Wednesday had not yet decided whether to strike Iran’s oil fields.

The option was one presented by the defense to Israeli leaders, according to officials.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday: “Our attack will be lethal, precise and, above all, surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results.”

The three Gulf sources said Saudi Arabia, as a major oil exporter, along with its oil-producing neighbors – the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain – had expressed an interest in de-escalating the situation.

“We will be in the middle of a missile war. There is serious concern, especially if the Israeli attack targets Iran’s oil facilities,” a second Gulf source said.

The three Gulf sources said an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure would have a global impact, particularly for China – Iran’s main oil customer – as well as for Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 presidential election, in which she is running against to Donald Trump.

“If the price of oil rises to $120 a barrel, it would hurt both the US economy and Harris’ election chances. So they (the Americans) will not allow the oil war to expand,” the first Gulf source said.

Gulf sources said protecting all oil facilities remained a challenge despite having advanced Patriot and missile defense systems, so the main approach remained diplomatic: signaling to Iran that the Gulf states posed no threat.

Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, noted that Riyadh is vulnerable “because the Iranians can swarm those facilities given the short distance from the mainland.”