One more month – Standard Chartered

A month before the election, the polls are still showing heat. The election will likely come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of swing states. On the congressional side, Republicans are likely to overturn the Senate; Home is too close to call, notes Standard Chartered economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce.

How close

“The national polling average shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by about 3 percentage points. At this point in the 2020 race, Biden was leading by 8 points. He ended up winning by a slim margin thanks to about 43,000 votes in three states — out of 158 million cast nationally — that tipped the Electoral College balance in his favor.”

“In this very close race, the swing states will play an even bigger role than usual. In seven states, polls show no predictable winner: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Michigan. Together they represent 93 votes from the Electoral College; Changes of just a few thousand votes could translate into very different scenarios, including a landslide victory for Harris, a landslide victory for Trump or an unprecedented tie.”

“On the congressional side, current polls show Republicans more likely to gain control of the Senate. This year’s race for the House of Representatives is probably the closest in modern US history.”