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WTI flat lines around $75.00, look poised to post gains for second straight week

  • WTI consolidates overnight gains and oscillates in a narrow band on Friday.
  • Geopolitical tensions and concerns about supply distortions are providing support to oil prices.
  • The USD’s recent rally keeps a lid on any further gains for the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil prices are struggling to capitalize on the previous day’s strong rally and oscillate in a narrow band around $75.00/barrel during the Asian session on Friday.

Markets remained concerned about a potential Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure, which keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the black liquid. In fact, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant promised earlier this week that any strike against Iran would be “lethal, precise and surprising.” Apart from this, concerns over supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Milton in the United States (US), along with an upbeat demand outlook, continue to support crude oil prices.

Investors have grown optimistic that China’s massive stimulus measures will spark a lasting recovery in the world’s second-largest economy and lift demand for fuel in the world’s biggest oil importer. In addition, markets appear confident that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will boost economic activity and oil demand. That said, stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data has raised some doubts about how much rates will fall in the coming months, which in turn limits gains in crude oil prices.

Apart from this, the recent rise in the US dollar (USD) to its highest level since mid-August, supported by the decreasing chances of more aggressive Fed policy easing, acts as a headwind for the commodity. However, crude oil prices remain on track for a second straight week of gains. That said, a sharp pullback from near the $78.00 level, or a near two-month high hit on Tuesday, warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the recovery from the year-to-date (YTD) low hit in September.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, pushing oil prices higher. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries in meetings twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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