Luton, Sheffield United and Burnley chances of direct return

The three teams that were promoted to the Premier League last season were relegated.

Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United returned directly to the Championship this season, the first time since 1997/98 when all three promoted sides failed to survive.

Not only that, but their combined total of 66 points is their lowest ever, beating their 2018/19 low by ten points.

With the gap between the Premier League and the Championship growing wider each season, survival is increasingly difficult and the task for Luton and Sheffield United was made even greater given their relative lack of spending last summer .

But the question their fans are now asking is whether they can go straight back into the Premier League.

With Leeds United and Southampton competing in this season’s Championship play-off final on 26 May, eleven of the thirty teams relegated over the past ten seasons have won promotion to the Premier League the following season.

That’s a 37% success rate.

In that time, ten teams have registered 26 or fewer points in the Premier League, the same amount that 18th-placed Luton have managed this season. But of these, only two sides, Norwich City in 2019/20 and Fulham in 2018/19 have managed to make it straight back.

That’s around half the success rate of relegated teams in general, although that success rate will increase to three in ten if Southampton beat Leeds in this weekend’s play-offs.

Norwich are the only team in the last ten seasons to win automatic promotion to the Premier League after recording 26 or fewer points in the previous season. The Canaries finished the 2019/20 season with just 21 points and a goal difference of minus 49, but won the championship the following season with 97 points. Fulham in 2018/19 finished with 26 points but won the play-offs after finishing fourth the following season.

In those ten seasons, clubs relegated by 26 points or less averaged 10^th place in the championship next season.

Going back further, excluding Southampton this season, only five teams in total since the creation of the Premier League brand in 1992 have won promotion immediately after relegation with 26 points or less, while two teams, Sunderland and Wolverhampton Wanderers, have managed instead to succeed. backward relegations.

But even Sheffield United can have some hope. Their 16 points this season were among the worst in Premier League history, but when Sunderland finished with even fewer points in 2005/06, they won the Championship the following season.

The three relegated sides may not have the salable assets that Leicester City and Southampton had last summer, but on the other hand Luton and Sheffield United’s transfer and wage bill are expected to be relatively low, which means they could use more. from their parachute payments to put them up for promotion.

And with two of last season’s relegated sides winning promotion this time around, there will be fewer clubs receiving parachute payments, meaning that those parachute payments that the relegated clubs receive this season will give them an advantage and higher than the rest of the championship.

So while Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley were the worst bottom three in history, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see at least one of them back in the Premier League in 2025/26.