The truth behind Leicester City’s biggest Premier League fear

The three newly-promoted Premier League sides are straight back where they came from, their spell in the spotlight on the big stage lasting just one season.

And actually they came with a whimper too. Luton, top of the group, have collected just 26 points, the lowest number for an 18th-placed side in Premier League history. Nottingham Forest survived with 32 points, the lowest total of any surviving club.

It looks to be an ominous sign for Leicester City as they prepare to return to the Premier League. There is a financial gulf between the top tier and the Championship and this season has suggested that it is becoming increasingly difficult to bridge.

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“The gap is getting wider,” former Brighton striker Glenn Murray told BBC Final Score at the weekend. “The Premier League is such a dominant league and I think (all three promoted club teams being relegated) will happen more and more often.”

However, Murray added: “I think Leicester could buck the trend next year. Obviously, they still have a very strong team coming off the championship.”

But is there a trend the city needs to buck? Are the collective poor performances of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United a worrying sign for clubs rising from the Championship or were they an anomaly? We dived into the numbers of the past 20 years to answer some key questions.

More promoted clubs coming straight back?

Yes, but only just. Over the past five seasons, more than half of the promoted clubs have fallen straight back down, with eight out of 15 failing to last more than a year in the Premier League.

As a five-year average, it is the highest number in 15 years. But that means it’s as difficult to stay awake now as it was to go to the Premier League in 2010. It’s too early to say it’s never been more difficult for a promoted club.

In fact, there have been three seasons in the last 20 years in which none of the promoted clubs have been relegated, and one of those was last year when Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest stayed awake. There was another one of those seasons quite recently, in 2018.

Do promoted clubs earn fewer points?

With 66 points between Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United, it was comfortably the worst season in 20 years for promoted clubs. And in fact, two of the three worst combined totals of the last two decades have been in the last three years, with Norwich, Watford and Brentford all earning just 91 points in 2021.

As a five-year average, the points tally of promoted clubs has just fallen to its lowest point in 20 years. But again, there’s not enough evidence to say it’s a trend. Points earned by promoted clubs, as the chart shows, has been at a fairly consistent level for some time.

How often are promoted clubs comfortable?

Enzo Maresca has said that 90 percent of promoted clubs are involved in relegation battles after promotion, but this is easily belied by the numbers. Over the past 20 years, 17 of the 60 teams that have moved up have won 45 points or more and are therefore relatively comfortable in their survival.

Ten teams in that span actually finished in the top half, while eight earned 50 points or more. Take a closer look, and it’s particularly interesting that half of the clubs 50-point streak has come in the past six seasons.

Prior to this campaign, there had been four out of five years in which at least one newly-promoted club reached 50 points, from Wolves in 2019, to Sheffield United in 2020, then Leeds in 2021 and then Fulham in 2023. This shows that there is no barrier to promoted parties enjoying very good seasons.

Does it matter where you finish in the championship?

In short, do City have an edge as Championship winners? A kind of. In the past 20 years, eight of the holders of the second-ranked title have been immediately relegated. But that’s the same number for the runners-up.

It seems it’s a little more difficult for the playoff winners to stay awake. Eleven of the last 20 went straight back down.

Where do you think City will finish? Let us know in the comments section below.