Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction: FA Cup Final Preview

Can Pep Guardiola’s men do the double and could the FA Cup final decide Erik ten Hag’s future with the Red Devils? We are waiting for the show on Saturday with Manchester City vs Manchester United prediction and preview.

Manchester City vs Manchester United stats: quick shots

• Manchester City are overwhelming favorites for FA Cup glory, winning 68% of Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations against Manchester United.
• City could beat their neighbors three times in the same campaign for the first time since 1969-70 after their league double against the Red Devils this term.
• Man Utd have lost six of their last seven meetings with Man City in all competitions (W1), including each of their last three.

Match preview

Condemned in the shadow of Manchester City in recent years, Manchester United will be praying for a statement answer when they meet their bitter rivals in the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola’s side secured a fourth straight Premier League title on Sunday after a 3-1 win over West Ham to pip Arsenal to top-flight glory. Man City have become the first English side to play four in a row in England’s top flight, with this chance of another double under their Catalan mind.

It’s a completely different story for Man Utd, whose manager Erik ten Hag is under pressure to produce a fighting performance – at the very least – at the end of a disappointing campaign in which they finished eighth in the Premier League.

Indeed, after their disappointing finish to the league competition, Man Utd are the weakest side to play in the FA Cup tournament since Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1 in 2020. There have been six previous occasions when a team finished eighth or lower facing this. champions of the season in the final – Aston Villa (10th) beat Manchester United 2-1 in 1957, but since then such teams have lost all five finals by a combined score of 15-0.

However, due to the Red Devils’ storied history in this competition, Ten Hag’s side will be looking to win the FA Cup for the 13th time; only Arsenal (14) have ever won more. Meanwhile, defending champions City are aiming to win this trophy for the eighth time and the first time in back-to-back years.

More silverware for Guardiola’s title-winning machine looks likely given their neighbors have failed to lift the trophy in four of their last five finals appearances. The exception came in 2016 against Crystal Palace under Louis van Gaal (2-1).

Another trophy celebration here would mark City’s third League and FA Cup double, a feat previously achieved only by Man Utd (1993-94, 1995-96 and 1998-99) and Arsenal (1970-71, 1997- 98 and 2001-02). . City did so in 2018-19 and 2022-23 and could thus become the first team to do so in back-to-back campaigns.

The chances of a further record are likely given that Ten Hag’s side have already lost 19 games and conceded 84 goals in all competitions this season. They last conceded 20 in a campaign in 1973-74 (22) and conceded more than 84 in 1963-64 (89).

This disappointing record will hardly inspire optimism in Manchester’s red side when they face City’s attacking wealth, including Erling Haaland and Phil Foden. The latter’s two goals propelled Guardiola’s side to the Premier League title against West Ham last time out.

Including that eye-catching feat against the Hammers, Foden has been involved in 10 goals in his last nine appearances in all competitions, scoring nine and assisting one. He has also scored six times in his last five games against United, while only against Brighton (eight) has he scored more goals in his career than his six against the Red Devils.

Foden won’t be the only City star to keep an eye on, with Haaland fresh from finishing as the Premier League’s top scorer for the second consecutive season. The Norwegian also leads Premier League contenders with 38 goals in all competitions this term and could become the first such player to score 40+ in back-to-back campaigns after scoring 52 last season.

Haaland has also been involved in nine goals in five appearances against United in all competitions (six goals, three assists), more than he has against any other team as a City player.

Further back in Guardiola’s fearsome line-up, Kevin De Bruyne assisted three goals in FA Cup finals, setting up Gabriel Jesus in 2019 and both of Ilkay Gündogan’s strikes against United last season. No player since 1962 has provided more assists in FA Cup finals than the Belgian maestro (Olivier Giroud also has three).

In City news, Stefan Ortega – the star substitute in the recent crucial win at Tottenham – will be certain to start in goal with Ederson injured with a minor fracture to his right eye socket. Guardiola’s first-choice goalkeeper should be the only absentee from his usual squad, although Ortega would likely have played anyway after featuring in last year’s final as well as every round of the FA Cup from 2023-24.

The Ten Hag will hope to have Harry Maguire and Anthony Martial back for Saturday’s start, with Victor Lindelöf also facing a late fitness test due to a thigh problem. Luke Shaw, Mason Mount and Tyrell Malacia are the only other injuries as Man Utd prepare for their toughest test in the English capital.

Manchester City – Manchester United Head-to-Head

This match is a repeat of last year’s final where City beat United 2-1 to complete the second part of their league, the FA Cup and the Champions League. Gündogan, now of Barcelona, ​​scored a decisive double after Bruno Fernandes canceled out the German’s quick opener with a first-half penalty.

Guardiola’s side have also won both of their Premier League meetings against their city rivals this season, beating them 3-0 at Old Trafford and 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium. The last time they beat their neighbors three times in the same campaign was in 1969-70.

Looking further back, a bleak picture for Ten Hag, whose side have lost six of their last seven meetings with Manchester City in all competitions (W1), including each of their last three in a row. United last lost four in a row against them in 2013-14.

The Ten Hag can take confidence from the fact that United have won five of their last seven FA Cup games against Man City. However, even then, both defeats in that series came in games at Wembley – in the semi-final in 2011 and in 2023.

With Guardiola and Ten Hag meeting in that competition’s final last year, this is the first time two Premier League managers have gone head-to-head in more than one FA Cup final (excluding replays).

Recent form

As has become the norm for Guardiola’s relentless side during the title race, City are unbeaten in their last 35 matches in all competitions (29 wins and 6 losses). Although that run includes their Champions League quarter-final exit to Real Madrid, that match counts as a draw as the game went to extra time and penalties.

That streak is the second-longest run by a top-flight club in English football history, behind Nottingham Forest’s 40-man run in 1978.

City have also won each of their last 11 FA Cup games; excluding relegation and canceled games, there have only been two longer winning runs in the history of the competition – Blackburn Rovers (20 between 1883 and 1886) and Chelsea (13 between 2009 and 2011).

Meanwhile, Man Utd beat Liverpool 4-3 in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and beat Coventry City on penalties after a 3-3 draw in the semi-finals to reach this stage. The Red Devils have only conceded 3+ goals in two of their previous 111 matches in the competition, while they have never done so in three consecutive games.

Octa Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings is a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale of zero to 100, where zero is the worst ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team from the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.

Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction

City have already beaten Man Utd twice this season, and supercomputer Opta is betting a third win for Guardiola’s side on 68% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

A draw would, at the very least, send this clash to extra time – and potential penalties – with Ten Hag’s best hope in 17.7% of data-based simulators.

However, the Red Devils will be hoping for an unlikely surprise at Wembley, with their chances of victory in 90 minutes predicted in 14.4% of Opta’s predictions.

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