NASCAR Betting: There’s a lot near the playoff bubble ahead of Bristol

The Cup Series makes its first trip to the concrete half-mile at Bristol this weekend.

Saturday night’s race (7:30 p.m. ET, USA) is the second race at Bristol this year. But it’s the first on the normal track surface. The spring race was held on a temporary dirt surface for the second consecutive year.

That means we’re all flying blind when it comes to betting on Saturday night’s race. There is nothing to take from what happened on the ground that will translate to the race on concrete.

Combine that with NASCAR’s new car and the way it’s run on short tracks, along with non-playoff drivers winning each of the first two playoff races, and we come into this race wondering if chalk is the way to go.

The playoff drivers finished in the top seven and 10 of the top 12 a season ago at Bristol. Tyler Reddick, who finished 12th, was the first of four drivers to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Only the top nine drivers in this year’s points standings appear safe going into Saturday night’s race. Ross Chastain is ninth and 32 points behind points leader Christopher Bell. He is also 20 points ahead of 10th place Daniel Suarez and Suarez is just six points ahead of 13th place.

Drivers 10-15 are separated by just 13 points in the standings, and Chase Briscoe in 15th is just nine points out of 12. There could be plenty of movement at the bottom of the standings throughout Saturday night’s race and a crash or three will go a long way in determining who is in and out of the playoffs before the second round.

Here’s what you need to know to bet on Sunday’s race. Before we get to the odds from BetMGM, here’s a quick refresher on the points standings. The bottom four drivers in the standings will be eliminated after Saturday night’s race, and no driver was stranded in the second round.

Points ranking

1. Christopher Bell, 2,108 points

2. William Byron, 2,098

3. Denny Hamlin, 2,097

4. Joey Logano, 2,090

5. Ryan Blaney, 2,086

6. Alex Bowman, 2,080

7. Chase Elliott, 2,078

8. Kyle Larson, 2,077

9. Ross Chastain, 2,076

10. Daniel Suarez, 2,056

11. Tyler Reddick, 2,052

12. Austin Cindric, 2,052

13. Kyle Busch, 2,050

14. Austin Dillon, 2,049

15. Chase Briscoe, 2,043

16. Kevin Harvick, 2,017

• Chase Elliott (+700)

• Denny Hamlin (+700)

• Kyle Larson (+700)

• Kyle Busch (+800)

• Christopher Bell (+900)

• Kevin Harvick (+900)

Elliott has three top fives and five top 10s in 11 starts at Bristol. He was outside the top 10 in 2021 when he infamously took Kevin Harvick’s line and helped teammate Kyle Larson win the race. Larson’s win was his first at Bristol and he has finished in the top 10 eight times in 13 starts. Hamlin has two wins and 15 top 10s in 31 starts and his average finish is in the top 15. Harvick has three wins and 21 top 10s in 41 starts and should not be considered in a win situation mandatory until the final round. Bell, meanwhile, has just one top-10 in three actual Bristol starts, but enters as the points leader and is very good at short tracks.

Good average value

• Martin Truex Jr. (+1600)

• William Byron (+1800)

Truex started on the pole last season and finished seventh. His chances would be better if he didn’t have a history of struggling at Bristol, but he should be quick again. Byron has two top-10 finishes in seven starts at Bristol.

Don’t bet on this driver

We wonder if Saturday night is the time and place for some revenge on Chastain. The short tracks are the best place to pay a driver back, and with Chastain close to the playoff bubble, his competitors won’t be naive to his playoff status.

Looking for a long shot?

Jones has four top fives and five top 10s in nine starts at Bristol and has the best average finish of any active driver at the track. He was the highest non-playoff driver at Bristol last season with an eighth-place finish.