Crude holds early week gains, Brent above $83/b

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures were flat in after-hours trading in Asia on Tuesday as markets held on to the 1% gains seen earlier in the week.

First month Jul24 ICE Brent futures were trading at $83.12/b (0645 GMT), compared with Monday’s settlement of $83.10/b, while the more liquid August 24 contract traded $82.89/b.

At the same time Jul24 NYMEX WTI trade at $78.74/b, versus Friday’s settlement of $77.72/b. There was no settlement on Monday due to the US holiday.

Prices rose on Monday on signs that oil consumption has picked up, particularly for transportation fuels, while expectations are rising for a return to OPEC+ for at least another quarter when it meets at the weekend.

Tensions in the Middle East also rose after an Israeli strike on Rafah left dozens of civilian casualties, while an Egyptian soldier was killed in a clash with the Israeli army near the Rafah border crossing.

In addition, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, issued a report on Monday warning of Iran’s continuation of its uranium enrichment program, which could also heighten geopolitical tensions.

A host of economic indicators follow this week from the US and Europe as central bankers look for positive signals in the face of stubbornly high inflation.

“Inflation data in both the Eurozone and the US were disappointing in the first months of the year. This reduced interest rate cut expectations for this year by around 100 basis points for both currency areas,” Austria’s Erste Bank said in a research note.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was likely to bring an above-average number of named storms as US weather watchers factored in the impact of the La Nina system.