The Conservatives will be “wiped out” in these five key areas, the poll predicts

Tory MPs in Sutton Coldfield, Northfield, Stourbridge, Wolverhampton and Walsall will be “wiped out” in a devastating Labor landslide, the first major general election poll has predicted.

Veteran Andrew Mitchell (Sutton Coldfield), marginal Northfield seat Gary Sambrook and Suzanne Webb (Stourbridge) would be among the casualties if polling by political forecasters Electoral Calculus is to be believed.

It predicts that Labor is on course to win 476 seats nationally and reduce the Conservatives to just 66 seats. This would be a bigger victory than when Tony Blair took power in 1997 and would give Sir Keir Starmer the majority he craves. Of the 24 constituency seats in the heart of Birmingham and the Black Country, all but four would be Labour.

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But Andrew Mitchell, who is defending a majority of 19,272 in Sutton Coldfield, slammed the poll as “sensational stuff” that failed to recognize the “actual real result of the election” that took place this week, which he said made it clear that voters in Birmingham are moving away from Labour, not towards them.

He was referring to the by-election for the town council in Kingstanding, where Tory candidate Clifton Welch won comfortably this week and secured a 6% swing to the Tories. Mitchell intends to constantly remind voters of the Labour-led council’s financial failings and the negative impact on his constituency as he fights to keep his seat, saying today: “Amidst all this froth, I would just point out that it is due to the dire financial situation of the work. the mismanagement and incompetence that the Tories won the Kingstanding by-election… if you like Birmingham Labor you will love a Labor government”.

The Conservatives have won Sutton Coldfield at every election since 1945 and received more than 60% of the vote there in 2019. Mitchell’s opponents include Rob Pocock (Labour), former journalist John Sweeney (Liberal Democrats), Council cabinet member Ben Auton Local from Birmingham. (Greens), Faiza Durrani (GB Labor Party) and Mark Hoath (Reform Britain).

The poll by Electoral Calculus, conducted with Find Out Now, sampled more than 10,000 voters and was conducted between May 20 and May 27. The model uses MRP (Multi-level Regression and Poststratification), a relatively recent innovation in survey science, which they say provides a more accurate picture of individual seats than traditional uniform swing models.

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However, ahead of the local labor camp celebration, pollsters are sounding a major note of caution. They accept that in areas with strong independent candidates, the outcome is still uncertain, citing Birmingham Ladywood as an example, where Shabana Mahmood, the sitting Labor MP and shadow justice secretary, faces a challenge from Independent Akhmed Yakoob. Also there are Lee Dargue (Lib Dems), Irene Henery (Reform UK), Zoe Challenor (Greens).

According to the Electoral Calculation, the following seats are expected switch from Conservative to Labour (or are new places created mostly from preserved places):

Birmingham Northfield => Work

Dudley (formerly Dudley North) => Work

Halesowen (formerly Halesowen and Rowley Regis) => Work

Stourbridge => Work

Sutton Coldfield => Work

Tipton and Wednesbury (formerly West Bromwich West) => Labour

Walsall and Bloxwich (formerly Walsall North/Walsall South combined) => Labour

West Bromwich (formerly West Bromwich East) => Labour

Wolverhampton North East => Work

Wolverhampton West (formerly Wolverhampton South West) => Work

Conservative withholdings are estimated to be in:

Aldridge-Brownhills

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire

Meriden and Solihull East

Solihull West and Shirley, formerly Solihull, are expected to be locked in depending on whether new independent Julian Knight splits the Tory vote with the party’s official candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst.

Martin Baxter, founder and CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “The latest MRP poll will be more disheartening reading for the Tories, who look set to lose over two-thirds of their seats in Birmingham and surrounding areas. Just a month ago we saw Andy Street narrowly lose his bid to remain Mayor of the West Midlands and we predict a continuation of the trend towards Labor in the general election.

“A strong showing in the West Midlands would put Labor on track for a large majority in Westminster, a region that has proved a key battleground in previous election cycles. The Conservatives will hope to win back voters who recently switched to reform, but we are yet to see substantial evidence that this will happen as things stand. However, with a long way to go until Election Day, this will be something to watch as the campaign progresses.”

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