General election predictor website shows the expected result in every London borough if voting took place today

VaselineJune 4, 2024

0 4 minutes read

General election predictor website shows the expected result in every London borough if voting took place today

The general election is fast approaching on July 4 and the incumbent Tories are miles behind the Labor opposition in the polls. But how does that actually translate to seats in the House of Commons, and London seats in particular?

Electoral Calculus predicted Labor would win a stunning 320-seat majority from May 28, based on the poll results. This is almost double the landslide victory of Tony Blair’s Labor in 1997, with a majority of 167 seats.

London has 73 MP constituencies and Electoral Calculus has predicted how each will vote. Let’s take a look at them all and tally up the scores at the end to see which party would come out on top in London if the vote were taken today.

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For each constituency, we have listed the party of the current incumbent, the party of the predicted incumbent and the predicted percentage of the vote that the winner will get to win the seat. In the last column I noted whether or not there is a change in the holder of the seat. This is based on the latest opinion polls collected by the website to give an indication of the results, although it does not mean it will happen. The polls for the Brexit vote were famously far from the actual result.

Labor will not cede a single seat to another party – holding 66 of the 73 available in the capital(Image: Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Constituency	Current	provided	Predicted votes	Change
barking	MAb	MAb	70.4%	Not
Battersea	MAb	MAb	59.8%	Not
Beckenham & Penge	cone	MAb	52.8%	CON>LAB
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	MAb	MAb	48.3%	Not
Bethnal Green and Stepney	MAb	MAb	66.9%	Not
Bexleyheath and Crayford	cone	MAb	46.2%	CON>LAB
Brent East	MAb	MAb	64.4%	Not
Brent West	MAb	MAb	62.1%	Not
Brentford and Isleworth	MAb	MAb	60.5%	Not
Bromley and Biggin Hill	cone	MAb	43.2%	CON>LAB
Carshalton and Wallington	cone	LIB	42.3%	CON>LIB
Chelsea and Fulham	cone	MAb	50.3%	CON>LAB
Chingford and Woodford Green	cone	MAb	55.1%	CON>LAB
Chipping Barnet	cone	MAb	54.1%	CON>LAB
The cities of London and Westminster	cone	MAb	47.5%	CON>LAB
Clapham and Brixton Hill	MAb	MAb	68.0%	Not
Croydon East	MAb	MAb	56.5%	Not
Croydon South	cone	MAb	44.3%	CON>LAB
Croydon West	MAb	MAb	70.2%	Not
Dagenham and Rainham	MAb	MAb	58.8%	Not
Dulwich and West Norwood	MAb	MAb	67.8%	Not
Ealing Central and Acton	MAb	MAb	62.6%	Not
Ealing North	MAb	MAb	64.2%	Not
Ealing Southall	MAb	MAb	67.1%	Not
East Ham	MAb	MAb	70.4%	Not
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill	MAb	MAb	63.4%	Not
Eltham and Chislehurst	cone	MAb	57.2%	CON>LAB
Enfield North	MAb	MAb	60.3%	Not
Erith and Thamesmead	MAb	MAb	66.0%	Not
Feltham and Heston	MAb	MAb	60.1%	Not
Finchley and Golders Green	cone	MAb	33.2%	CON>LAB
Greenwich and Woolwich	MAb	MAb	67.7%	Not
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	MAb	MAb	72.9%	Not
Hackney South and Shoreditch	MAb	MAb	75.0%	Not
Hammersmith and Chiswick	MAb	MAb	63.0%	Not
Hampstead and Highgate	MAb	MAb	52.8%	Not
Harrow East	cone	MAb	49.2%	CON>LAB
Harrow West	MAb	MAb	62.4%	Not
Hayes and Harlington	MAb	MAb	62.2%	Not
Hendon	cone	MAb	56.1%	CON>LAB
Holborn and St Pancras	MAb	MAb	70.0%	Not
Hornchurch and Upminster	cone	MAb	45.9%	CON>LAB
Hornsey and Friern Barnet	MAb	MAb	58.7%	Not
Ilford North	MAb	MAb	58.1%	Not
Ilford South	MAb	MAb	64.6%	Not
Islington North	MAb	MAb	70.2%	Not
Islington South and Finsbury	MAb	MAb	67.0%	Not
Kensington and Bayswater	cone	MAb	51.7%	CON>LAB
Kingston and Surbiton	LIB	LIB	59.4%	Not
Lewisham East	MAb	MAb	71.0%	Not
Lewisham North	MAb	MAb	75.3%	Not
Lewisham West and East Dulwich	MAb	MAb	71.8%	Not
Leyton and Wanstead	MAb	MAb	67.8%	Not
Mitcham and Morden	MAb	MAb	67.2%	Not
Old Bexley and Sidcup	cone	cone	45.9%	Not
Orpington	cone	MAb	40.2%	CON>LAB
Peckham	MAb	MAb	74.8%	Not
Poplar and Lime	MAb	MAb	63.9%	Not
Putney	MAb	MAb	56.8%	Not
Queen’s Park and Maida Vale	MAb	MAb	68.4%	Not
Richmond Park	LIB	LIB	54.3%	Not
Romford	cone	MAb	44.4%	CON>LAB
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	cone	MAb	42.2%	CON>LAB
Southgate and Wood Green	MAb	MAb	64.5%	Not
Stratford and Bow	MAb	MAb	69.0%	Not
Streatham and Croydon North	MAb	MAb	67.2%	Not
Sutton and Cheam	cone	LIB	35.3%	CON>LIB
Tooting	MAb	MAb	65.5%	Not
Tottenham	MAb	MAb	76.2%	Not
Twickenham	LIB	LIB	56.3%	Not
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	cone	MAb	47.3%	CON>LAB
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green	MAb	MAb	69.1%	Not
Walthamstow	MAb	MAb	74.2%	Not
West Ham and Beckton	MAb	MAb	72.2%	Not
Wimbledon	cone	LIB	47.3%	CON>LIB

Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives will lose all of bar 1 of the 22 seats. 18 for Labor and three for the Lib Dems(Image: Yui Mok – WPA Pool/Getty Images)

So Electoral Calculus predicted the Tories would lose 21 of their London seats – 18 to Labor and three to the Lib Dems. They are expected to retain just one site in the whole of the capital – Old Bexley and Sidcup. All other Tory MPs are due to be ousted, including Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip – now held by Tory Steven Tuckwell after last year’s by-election – and Greg Hands in Chelsea and Fulham.

Dianne Abbot is expected to comfortably win her seat in Hackney North and Stoke Newington, despite recent controversy surrounding her selection as a Labor candidate. Keir Starmer is also predicted to win his seat in Holborn and St Pancras easily, as well as Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.

Labor is not predicted to lose a single seat in the capital, only to win them from the Tories. The Lib Dems are also on a good run, not losing any of their three South West London seats and are also predicted to win three from the Tories in Sutton and Cheam, Wimbledon and Carshalton and Wallington. But anything can happen on polling day, and it’s important to remember that these predictions are based on the limited number of people polled at this time. Only getting out and voting on the 4th of July will have any effect anyway.

VaselineJune 4, 2024

0 4 minutes read

Vaseline

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