General Election 2024 mega-poll predicts Dan Norris to beat Jacob Rees-Mogg and Greens to win Bristol Central

Labour’s Dan Norris is set to unseat old Tory foe Jacob Rees-Mogg in the general election, while the Greens are likely to take Bristol Central, a mega-poll shows. The resurgent Liberal Democrats are also expected to make big gains, with South Gloucestershire Council leader Cllr Claire Young tipped to take Thornbury & Yate from Tory MP Luke Hall, although all three battlegrounds should very close.

The first major YouGov poll ahead of the 2024 General Election suggests a massive national victory for Labour, with the party winning a majority of 194 seats, even bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997. It gives Labor 422 MPs, the Tories narrow at just 140. and the Lib Dems with 48.

In the South West, Labor would become the largest party with 24 seats, up from seven, with the Conservatives suffering heavy losses and falling from 52 to 20, and the Lib Dems returning with 14 after taking zero in the region in 2019. Ex. -cabinet member Jacob Rees-Mogg is set to lose his seat to incumbent west of England metro mayor Dan Norris in the newly created North East Somerset & Hanham constituency in a rematch 14 years after the Tories defeated him – they removed the former Labor minister.

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YouGov has a narrow seat in favor of Labour, which she calls “lean”. It predicts National Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer is “likely” to become only the party’s second Bristol Central MP, beating Labor secretary for culture, media and sport Thangam Debbonaire into second place.

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Pollsters see Thornbury & Yate as “leaning” towards the Lib Dems from the Tories, while Labour’s Filton & Bradley Stoke candidate Claire Hazelgrove has a more comfortable lead over Tory Jack Lopresti and is “likely” to win. The YouGov poll is based on the voting intentions of nearly 60,000 voters and uses a technique known as MRP, which is considered one of the most accurate forms of election forecasting.

Details of each constituency can be found here.