The truth about ’14 million immigrants coming to Britain’ from Reform UK

In a social media ad posted on X and Facebook, Reform UK shared an image titled “Immigration isn’t working”, which quoted the Office for National Statistics as claiming: “14 million will arrive in the next 12 years”. But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) actually estimates that 10.3 million people will emigrate to the UK over the next 12 years.

The 13.7 million long-term immigration figure covered a 15-year period between mid-2021 and mid-2036. By the election campaign, three years of immigration had already passed, and the remaining total for the next 12 years is 10 .3 million.

The ONS regularly publishes a national population projection to give policy makers an idea of ​​the ‘potential future size’ of the UK population. As part of these calculations, it also cautions that the figures “are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict potential changes in international migration”.

The latest projection, published in January 2024, estimates that the UK population will grow by 6.6 million between mid-2021 and mid-2036. Of this, around 500,000 will come from a disparity between births and deaths (10.8 million and 10.3 million, respectively).

The remaining population increase of 6.1 million comes from the difference between 13.7 million people emigrating to the UK long-term and 7.6 million people emigrating long-term from the UK. The ONS breaks these figures down in its main projection data set, showing that over the next 12 years (from mid-2024 to mid-2036), the actual projected level of international migration flows is 10,347,000.

It assumes a net migration figure of 315,000 each year from 2028, made up of 827,000 immigrants and 512,000 emigrants. This follows the current period of high immigration, with a net figure of 672,000 in the year ending June 2023, driven by factors such as hosting Ukrainian refugees and migrants on health and care visas.

Reform UK has been contacted for comment.