Manchester United and the double-edged sword of Conference League qualification

Manchester United are currently eighth in the Premier League, competing with Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United and Chelsea for a possible European qualification.

United’s highest possible finish in their remaining three games could qualify them for the Europa League. The lowest level could see them finish outside the league positions needed for European qualification. The middle ground offers an interesting conundrum: qualification for the Europa Conference League.

UEFA’s third-tier competition, which will simply be called the Conference League next season, has offered a chance for teams outside the super-elite to compete for glory. Next season, that invitation could be extended to Manchester United. Liverpool’s victory in this season’s Carabao Cup means entry into the Conference League play-off round goes to the Premier League’s highest-placed team, who are not otherwise in Europe.

If Erik ten Hag’s side fail to win the FA Cup final on 25 May and finish seventh, not eighth, they could face a two-legged tie on 22 and 29 August* for a place in the new revamped “League Stage” of the Conference League.

Some United fans may prefer to avoid competing in a third-tier competition, reasoning that playing one game a week would allow more training time, allowing Ten Hag to develop his squad further. There are others who would relish the opportunity to travel to some of Europe’s lesser-known football sites, with United having the opportunity to win silverware in an era where they have not had as much success as they would have hoped .

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Here’s how United’s possible involvement in the Conference League could work and why committing to such a competition would be a double-edged sword.

*The 2024-25 Conference League remains somewhat of a moving holiday at the time of writing. Some of the data included in this piece is provisional and subject to change.

The Conference League group stages will finish before Christmas

No team directly qualifies for the 36-team league stage of the Conference League. Several teams must first compete in a series of qualifying rounds (the first round starts on July 11 — the day before the Euro 2024 final).

United’s potential qualification for the Conference League would depend on their performance in a two-legged play-off in August. As potential English qualifiers for the competition, they will be included in the ‘Main Path’ of qualification, with a play-off seeding yet to be determined but which should see them avoid any of the six teams that entered the qualifiers Conference League due to elimination in the preliminary third round of the Europa League.

A potential European game five days after the start of the new Premier League season may make encouraging reading, but if United are to make it to the 2024-25 League Stage, they would not have to begin their European endeavors until the first week. , on 3 October 2024. United would also finish continental fixtures earlier than English teams in the other two competitions. UEFA’s reworked competition format will see the Champions League and Europa League not have their final matchday until January. Instead, the final day of the Conference League stage takes place on 19 December 2024.

An earlier start and earlier finish to the League Stage rounds of the Conference League would give Ten Hag more time to assess their squad and make proper plans for the January transfer window. English clubs competing in the Champions League and Europa League will not be able to make any January signings to their European teams as their League stages will still be ongoing.

Furthermore, if United were to qualify for the Conference League and finish in the top-8 in the League stage, they would not have to return to the Conference League competition until 6 and 13 March 2025 for the optimal fixtures. A less successful league run could see them feature a two-legged play-off in February.

The Conference League comes with many potential pitfalls for a club of United’s size

To address the most obvious elephant in the room, the size and stature of United’s club would stick out like a sore thumb in the Conference League.

When West Ham visited Old Trafford in February, the away fans chanted: “Conference League winners, you’ll never sing that” as a tongue-in-cheek joke. This month, the club was named the world’s most valuable football club, worth an estimated $6.2bn (£4.96bn).

United want to be in the Champions League and enjoy the glory, glamor and income that comes with it. UEFA’s redesign of all three European competitions has been partly fueled by clubs such as United pushing for a bigger slice of the competition pie. The future League Stage set-up should, in theory, protect against the implosions that saw United crash out of the 2023-24 Champions League early after managing just one win in six group stage games.

There are many reasons why it might be preferable for United to avoid European competition altogether rather than compete in the Conference League.

Financially, while there are some benefits to hosting extra games at Old Trafford (the club is believed to generate between £2m and £4m per home game), the sums of money handed out after winning Conference League games are relatively small compared to those found in Europe and the Champions League. The travel and accommodation costs involved in away games, along with the potential win bonuses given to players on bigger contracts, means United would need to make a deep run in the tournament for it to be seen as an unqualified success by the club’s accountants .

United finished bottom of their Champions League group this season (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Last season, Ten Hag explained his preference for the Champions League as a matter of not only competing with the best teams, but also decongesting the matches. The Dutchman believes the Tuesday/Wednesday midweek schedule gives him more time to prepare for weekend Premier League games, compared to the Thursday-Sunday routine that comes with Europe and conference competition.

Historically, the United manager has not been a fan of rotating his squads, preferring to play his strongest XI where possible to build ‘routines’ and play up his team chemistry.

United’s possible participation in Europe’s third-tier competition would see them as one of the bigger fish – if not the biggest – in the competition. The opposition teams will be stepping up their efforts in the hope of achieving famous victories against United. If Ten Hag or his players take their foot off the gas in any game in the tournament, there is a huge potential for embarrassment at a time when the club is looking to save some reds.

However, competition can be an opportunity to build positive momentum

The Ten Hag went into this season wanting to turn United into the best transition team in the world. His side is currently trying to avoid one of the worst regressive crises it has faced in a decade.

A possible qualification to the Conference League would seal the horribilis year that was 2023-24. However, taking part in the competition could provide an alternative route for new and old players to acclimatise to whatever tactical adjustments the United manager brings next season.

The club badly needs to get back into the habit of winning games again and while the Conference League comes with a variety of dangers, there is always merit in taking the things learned on the training ground and testing them in a proper competition. Wins beget more wins and a successful run through the league stage of UEFA’s tertiary competition gives United a good opportunity to build positive momentum at the start of 2024-25.

United’s task this summer is to recognize the gap between their potential and reality and put in place appropriate systems to close that gap. The Conference League could provide a chance to test those systems. However, it could also be a useless key in those works.

(Top photo: Peter Powell/AFP via Getty Images)