Right-wing ascendancy at the EU level could impact trade with Canada and climate policy

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he is taking an optimistic approach after Europeans made a swing to the far right in continental elections that could affect Canada’s trade and climate policies.

“It shows that the far right is becoming more popular across Europe,” said Achim Hurrelmann, co-director of the Center for European Studies at Carleton University.

“They have now become a persistent part of party systems that we have to reckon with.”

Far-right parties surged in last weekend’s vote for the European Parliament, taking the share of the main parties across the continent through a system of proportional representation.

French President Emmanuel Macron made a surprise call for early legislative elections after his party suffered a heavy loss to the far-right National Rally party, which won 31 percent of the vote. About 16 percent of the German vote went to the far-right Alternative for Germany, despite a series of scandals and accusations of racism.

Hurrelmann said countries such as Italy and Austria have also seen a sharp increase in support for parties that were previously considered fringe but have recently taken a more moderate tone.

“Far-right parties now exist as a significant political force in most (EU) member states,” he said.

Hurrelmann said last weekend’s vote comes at a time when there are challenges across the continent in addressing cost of living and immigration concerns.

The results are influenced by factors unique to each country, Hurrelmann said, and argued that the high support in France and Germany amounted to a protest vote against the two governments.

But he said some issues were spreading across the continent, such as the cost of the war in Ukraine and the argument that letting Russia continue its invasion could bring down high gas prices.

He noted that the European Green Deal includes policies to reduce carbon emissions that are in line with Canadian policies, but there is a growing number of parties across the continent who want to reform the project.

“The most interesting area to watch is probably climate change policy,” he said.

Last November, Canada and the EU said they were in an “ever-deepening partnership” focused on working for global stability, fighting climate change and upholding human rights.

But Hurrelmann said rising populism could see a more insular approach from Europe, particularly if US voters return Donald Trump to the White House with promises to flout global rules and institutions.

“We are already seeing more trends in Europe to really pursue Europe’s interests as opposed to primarily trying to protect the rules-based international order,” he said.

“This could be quite problematic for Canada if Europe is no longer an uncompromising ally for Canadian priorities.”

On Monday, Trudeau reacted to the results in France, noting that “a rise of right-wing populist forces” is taking place in most democracies.

“It’s troubling to see political parties choosing to instrument anger, fear, divisive anxiety,” he told reporters in Quebec City.

“My approach has always been to respond to it, understand it and seek to resolve it,” he said, arguing that Canadians would prefer that approach “than simply allowing their anger to fester without solutions offered”.

The Conservatives have repeatedly argued that growing frustration in Canada is the result of Liberal policies they say have caused economic problems.

Hurrelmann also noted that the results of the French election could put pressure on Canada’s free trade agreement with the European Union. In March, the French senate rejected the agreement that has been provisionally in force since 2017, while several other countries have yet to fully implement the deal.

Canada’s ambassador to the EU, Ailish Campbell, said last month that the provisional implementation had worked well, and she suggested that signing the same deal today might not be possible because of rising protectionism in Europe in recent years.

“It was incredibly prescient that we made this deal when we did,” she told the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee on May 30.

“That’s the theme of the EU in terms of how they ratify this deal, and they should take as much time as they need to get that process right, because the deal is really working well.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on June 10, 2024.

Dylan Robertson, Canadian Press