Who will be my MP in… Croydon South?

Millions of voters in London will go to the polls on July 4 to elect a new government. The Standard analyzes key battlefield sites in the capital. Here we turn on the spotlight:

SOUTH CROYDON

Candidates for the main parties (in alphabetical order):

Bob Bromley – Reform Britain

Elaine Garrod – Green Party

Richard Michael Howard – Liberal Democrats

Chris Philp – Tories

Ben Taylor – Labor Party

summary: ‘Selsdon Man’ has its origins in Croydon South, coined by Labor Prime Minister Harold Wilson in 1970 in a derogatory way to brand the free market economics of his Tory rival Edward Heath after a shadow Cabinet policy meeting at the Hotel Selsdon Park in the constituency. But it loses this nugget of political history as Selsdon now goes into Croydon East as part of boundary changes.

Croydon South was won by Chris Philp, now police minister, in 2015 with a majority of 17,140, ​​which fell to 12,339 by 2019.

The sprawling constituency of affluent suburbs is the only Croydon seat out of three that was won by the Tories five years ago.

Labor looks set to need a swing of more than 13%, according to some estimates, to win here, but the rise of reform in Britain could hit the Tories hard.

Area: The constituency includes the wards of Coulsdon Town, Kenley, Old Coulsdon, Park Hill & Whitgift, Purley & Woodcote, Purley Oaks & Riddlesdown, Sanderstead and South Croydon

Not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check

Impact of boundary changes (Thrasher and Rawlings analysis): Boundary changes slightly favor conservatives. In the 2019 election, they won 52.2% of the vote, compared to 31.4% for Labor and 12.6% for the Lib Dems. In the new boundaries, it would have been 54.5% Tory, 28.1% Labor and 13.5% Lib Dem.

YouGov MRP poll prediction: Labor gain from conservatives

Standard evening view: Labor says “the road to Number 10 goes through Croydon South”, but it looks more likely that Sir Keir Starmer will end up in Downing Street than his party will win in Croydon South.