close
close

Opinions differ on future oil supply and demand

Crude oil is an important commodity that is traded worldwide. Its price varies daily from country to country and state to state.

On Thursday, crude oil opened on the international exchange for Brent at 82 dollars per barrel. Crude oil opened at $78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery in 30 days. Oil is also bought from thousands of leases in the US at slightly less than the NYMEX price, depending on quality and availability.

The future availability or supply of oil is important. That’s why governments have agencies that study economic conditions in an effort to predict the amount of oil that will be produced and consumed next month, next year, or perhaps 10 years into the future.

The Energy Information Administration was created by the US Congress about 50 years ago to track energy production and consumption, and has developed a reputation for providing accurate data on historical production and consumption. However, predicting the future is somewhat more difficult, but it is necessary to do it.

This week, the EIA forecast U.S. crude oil production will rise 2% from 2023 to an annual average of 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and another 4% in 2025 to 13.7 million of barrels per day.

“Production growth is led by the Permian region, which is the source of nearly 50 percent of domestic crude oil production, followed by the Eagle Ford region and the Federal Gulf of Mexico,” the EIA said in its monthly release.

The EIA expects OPEC+ to begin easing voluntary cuts in the fourth quarter of this year, which will cause global oil inventories to continue to decline, putting upward pressure on oil prices. EIA expects Brent price of $84 for the rest of the year.

The International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are two other organizations that are involved in tracking global energy supply and demand and often have different views.

The IEA predicts that global demand for crude oil will peak before 2030, while OPEC says that global demand will increase.

The IEA predicts that demand will decrease primarily due to the development of wind and solar energy and the continued use of electric vehicles.

OPEC believes that global demand will increase as developing countries experience economic growth and create more demand for oil production.

As you can see, there are different opinions about future supply and demand.

Alex Mills is the past president of the Texas Power Producers Alliance.

Related Articles

Back to top button