Most ‘vulnerable’ seats in general election as local area set to play key role in UK outcome

Two local constituencies have been named among those that could switch from Conservative to Labor at the next general election. The PA news agency has named marginal seats in the West Midlands being targeted by Labour, and says the region could play a key role in deciding who forms the next government.

The region’s most vulnerable seat is said to be the newly created Wolverhampton West constituency, where the Tories are holding a majority of 934.

That means he needs a change in the share of the vote of just one percentage point to change hands: small enough to rank fifth on Labour’s target list nationally.

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But Nuneaton and Rugby have also been named in a group of city seats which could change hands if Labor performs particularly strongly. Long-serving Nuneaton MP Marcus Jones is defending his seat, but Rugby MP Mark Pawsey has stepped down, leaving a new Tory candidate to defend the constituency.

Coventry North West has been named Labour’s most vulnerable constituency in the West Midlands. Taiwo Owatemi, who has been an MP since 2019, is defending a majority of only 208.

And the Liberal Democrats are said to be targeting Stratford-on-Avon. Nadhim Zahawi stood down this year and the Lib Dems came second in the 2019 election. They would need a direct swing of 17.8 points to take the seat, although their hopes were boosted by their success in the Stratford local election from 2023, when they won a majority in the council.

All notional majorities and variances mentioned above have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency and will be used as a basis for reporting wins and losses in the general election.

For more information on candidates running in constituencies in the local area, you can see the Coventry candidates here; Nuneaton apply here; Bedworth and North Warwickshire candidates here; Rugby candidates here; Kenilworth and Southam here; Stratford-on-Avon candidates here; Warwick and Leamington candidates here; Meriden and Solihull East candidates here; and candidates Solihull West and Shirley here.

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